Championship Week Preview, Part II

By Andrew Hard

Last week, The Road to 592 broke down the first 14 conference tournaments, starting with the Big South and culminating Tuesday with champions crowned in the NEC, Horizon, and Summit leagues. The big boys have yet to take the court (unless you count a 37-37 regulation tilt between Seton Hall and South Florida as "big boy" basketball), but the six major conference tourneys will soon provide lots of fluffy bubble drama (SEC) and actual, tournament-impacting drama (Big Ten). Don't sleep either on the deeper A-10 and Mountain West conferences, who may put as many as 5 teams apiece into the tournament.

Here's a look at the remaining 16 conference tournaments, all starting this week:

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

When: Monday through Saturday

Where: Norfolk Scope, Norfolk, VA
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 5:00)

The Field: Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Hampton, Savannah State, Morgan State, Delaware State, North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, Florida A&M, Howard, South Carolina State, Maryland-Eastern Shore

The Favorite: It's hard to bet against a team that won an NCAA Tournament game a year ago, went an undefeated 16-0 in conference, and comes into the tournament on a 15-game winning streak. Norfolk State is cruising right now, and they'll have the tournament in their own backyard. It's hard to pick against this #1 seed, although it is worth noting that they did not match up against #2 seed NC Central in the regular season (I'm not quite sure how this is possible).

The Darkhorse: Another #15 seed darling from a few years ago also came out of the MEAC -- nearby Hampton, located just 22 miles from Norfolk State's campus, upset #2 Iowa State in 2001 just 11 years before Norfolk turned the trick. The Pirates draw the #3 seed in this year's tourney and lost by only 10 combined points in their two meetings with the Spartans. They might also have the only non-Norfolk State fans in the house should these teams meet in the final.

Why You Should Watch: If you're a diehard fan of Duke, Louisville, Gonzaga, or Indiana, you might want to do some scouting of a potential first-round opponent. Otherwise, this title game should just be filler in between commercial breaks of the big boy tournaments you'll be watching instead.

Roadto592 Pick: Norfolk State

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

When: Monday through Saturday

Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH (first round on campus)
TV: Second, third and semifinal rounds on ESPN3, Final round on ESPN2 (Saturday, 6:30)

The Field: Akron, Ohio, Western Michigan, Kent State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Miami (OH)

The Favorite: The dream final here would be a repeat of last year's electric championship game between Akron and Ohio. The Bobcats fought off a furious charge from the Zips in the final minutes of that one, winning 64-63 and then advancing all the way to the Sweet 16. Don't be surprised if either team, whichever wins, goes on another deep run -- the Zips have an even more robust profile (24-6, 12-2 MAC, 51 RPI) than Ohio did last year, projecting them around that same #13 line in the NCAAs. I'm giving the slight edge to Akron in this one, after they fended off Ohio in overtime on the road just two weeks ago. 

The Darkhorse: #4 seed Kent State won at Akron to close the regular season and also took Ohio to overtime on the road. If anyone's going to disrupt the 1-2 matchup, it might be the Golden Flashes, led by 6'8" senior Chris Evans (16.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg). It's worth noting that both Akron and Ohio get byes to the semifinals in this tournament, so the battle is an uphill one for any team trying to break those top two.

Why You Should Watch: The last four MAC title games have all been decided by 1-2 points or overtime. You know this is going to be close, and if it's an Akron-Ohio matchup, you'll likely be watching one of the teams you pick to make an improbable Sweet 16 run.

Roadto592 Pick: Akron

Big East Conference

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV: First round on ESPNU (Tuesday, 7:00 and 9:00), Second round on ESPN (Wednesday, 12:00 and 2:00) and ESPN2 (7:00 and 9:00), Quarterfinals (Thursday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Semifinals (Friday, 7:00 and 9:00), and Finals (Saturday, 8:30) on ESPN

The Field: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Villanova, Providence, Cincinnati, St. John's, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, DePaul

The Favorite: An up-and-down season throughout college basketball actually produced a pretty clear split at the top of this conference, as Georgetown, Louisville, and Marquette all finished 2 games clear of the rest of the Big East field. But don't look for chalk in this tournament -- a #1 seed hasn't won since 2009, and the legendary "five wins in five days" run by UConn in 2011 often seems more like the norm than the outlier. Still, no one is playing better basketball in the country right now than Louisville, winners of 10 of their last 11 (with the only loss coming in that five-overtime thriller in South Bend). Gorgui Dieng might be the best big man in the conference -- the 6'11" Senegal native has posted a double-double in four of the Cardinals' last seven games and is one of only two Big East-ers to average 10 and 10 this year (Jack Cooley being the other).

The Darkhorse: No one will win five games in five days this year, since the departure of West Virginia and the academic ineligibility of UConn mean that only the bottom 4 teams play in the opening round Tuesday. But from the Wednesday crowd, don't put it past #9 seed Cincinnati to be the team catching fire all the way to a Saturday title. The Bearcats are a lot more talented than their bubble-worthy 21-10, 9-9 record, and Sean Kilpatrick is capable of a Kemba Walker-esque scoring run (just ask Marquette, who got torched for 36 points in a January 19 road overtime loss). Cincy draws beatable Providence on Wednesday before a Thursday date with the plodding, defensive-oriented Hoyas. You know that game will stay close, and if Kilpatrick has the last shot, advantage Bearcats.

Why You Should Watch: If nothing else, it's at least worth watching Bill Raftery scream "MAN TO MAN" for the last time, and weep on the air after this one is over. The Big East has been the best, most historic conference in the country for at least the last 30 years, with rivalries like Georgetown-Syracuse, Louisville-Notre Dame, and Pitt-West Virginia giving us some of the most dramatic basketball theater we've ever seen. This will be the last go-around for this conference as we know it, with Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame jumping to the ACC and the "Catholic 7" taking the conference name with them to join Butler, Xavier, and Creighton next year. Take in every minute of this last version of MSG Madness, and pour one out for Lou Carnesecca, Rollie Massimino, and John Thompson when it's all said and done.

Roadto592 Pick: Louisville

Mountain West Conference

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
TV: Quarterfinals (Wednesday, 3:00, 5:30, 9:30, and midnight) and semifinals (Friday, 9:00 and 11:30) on CBS Sports Network, Finals on CBS (Saturday, 6:00)

The Field: New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Wyoming, Nevada

The Favorite: New Mexico has more or less dominated this conference all year, winning 13 of 15 before a 1-point slip-up at Air Force to close the year. The Lobos have to be considered the favorites, but this is as wide open a field as ever, with as many as 5 teams on the verge of NCAA bids. Don't count out any of the top 5 to win this tournament, including the homestanding UNLV Rebels, the out-muscle-you-out-of-the-gym Colorado State Rams, or the why-don't-we-play-on-a-blue-court Boise State Broncos. But New Mexico has earned clear favorite status in this one. 

The Darkhorse: If anyone outside the top 5 is going to make a run, it has to be Air Force. The Falcons are incredibly efficient, ranking in the top 20 in the country in both field goal percentage and assists per game. Senior Michael Lyons (18.3 ppg) put up 30 in that win against New Mexico and 45 in an overtime loss to Colorado State. Air Force draws UNLV on Wednesday and wouldn't have to play top-seeded New Mexico until the final.

Why You Should Watch: There's bubble drama all over this one. The San Diego State-Boise State quarterfinal on Wednesday might be a tournament play-in game, with the loser having to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. It's in the conference's best interests to have the Lobos pull this one out, though, as they might be in line for a 2 seed if they do. New Mexico laid an egg as a 3-seed in 2010 (losing in the 2nd round) and would be looking for redemption if they made it that high in this year's bracket.

Roadto592 Pick: Colorado State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 11:00)

The Field: Louisiana Tech, Denver, New Mexico State, Texas-Arlington, Utah State, Idaho, Texas State, San Jose State, Texas-San Antonio, Seattle

The Favorite: It wasn't long ago that the WAC would regularly get at-large teams in the NCAA Tournament. Back in the heyday of Nevada and Nick Fazekas, the Wolf Pack could afford to lose this conference title game because they were assured of a single digit seed, giving the auto-bid to the likes of New Mexico State and Utah State. Those days are long gone -- the Mountain West poached Nevada, Fresno State, and Boise State, and after next year, only New Mexico State and Seattle University will be left out of the current 10. As bad as things have been for the WAC and as worse as they'll be in the near future, they can definitely hang their hat on 26-5 Louisiana Tech, who lost their only two conference games this week after an 18-game winning streak. The Bulldogs may not have the profile of an at-large team, but they will certainly be in contention for a 12-14 seed (and prime upset position) if they win this tourney.

The Darkhorse: It's hard to imagine anyone below the 3-4 seed winning this thing, since so many of these teams are in way over their heads due to quickie conference expansion. New Mexico State, though, does pose a legitimate threat to take down the Bulldogs should they make it to the final. 7'5", 355 pound Sim Bhullar is everything you'd expect from a 7'5" freshman -- raw offensively, uncoordinated, but very dangerous inside. He would be the darling of the NCAAs if the Aggies made it, and with 10.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 2.4 bpg, he might be the difference-maker NMSU needs.

Why You Should Watch: Watching a 7'5" man play basketball is entertaining in itself. Especially when you're drunk at a bar for an 11:00 tip after "I swear it's just St. Patties Day Eve!"

Roadto592 Pick: Louisiana Tech

Pac-12 Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: First round (Wednesday, 3:00, 5:30, 9:00, and 11:30) on Pac-12 Network, Quarterfinals on Pac-12 Network (Thursday, 3:00, 5:30, and 9:00) and ESPNU (11:30), Semifinals on Pac-12 Network (Friday, 9:00) and ESPN (11:30), Finals on ESPN (Saturday, 9:00)

The Field: UCLA, California, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, USC, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State

The Favorite: I don't know. Arizona looked like a man among boys in pre-conference play, with that come-from-behind win over Florida still up there as one of the games of the year. Oregon had an amazing run to start conference play but barely showed up for their final 11 games. Cal took the reins from the Ducks, but pre-conference losses to Wisconsin, Creighton, UNLV and Harvard show that the Golden Bears may not be ready just yet. UCLA is the most talented team in the conference, but Ben Howland's squad often fails to show up (double-digit road losses at Arizona State and Washington State tarnish an otherwise-brilliant resume). When in doubt, take the #1 seed -- that's UCLA.

The Darkhorse: Colorado, Colorado, Colorado. After a Wednesday date with the woeful OSU Beavers, Colorado gets Arizona for the third time this season in the quarterfinals. You think they still aren't bitter about that buzzer-beating-three-pointer-that-wasn't? "Of course, this was a revenge game," said would-be hero Spencer Dinwiddie after the Buffaloes throttled the Wildcats in the rematch. Give Colorado that win, and they're an NCAA lock. Give them another chance at Arizona, and you're looking at a double-revenge game, with an NCAA berth perhaps on lockdown should Dinwiddie & Co. pull it out.

Why You Should Watch: I have AT&T, which doesn't even carry the Pac-12 Network. Most of you Comcast subscribers probably don't go deep enough in your channel packages to get it, either. Is this a backlash to East Coast bias? They might be keeping their network from us on purpose. On the other hand, Washington and Colorado are squarely in this conference's footprint, so you'd forgive them for just forgetting...

Roadto592 Pick: Colorado

Conference USA

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: BOK Center, Tulsa, OK
TV: Quarterfinals (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:00, and 9:30) and semifinals (Friday, 4:00 and 6:30) on CBS Sports Network, Finals on CBS (Saturday, 11:30)

The Field: Memphis, Southern Mississippi, UTEP, East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, UAB, Tulane, Marshall, Southern Methodist, Rice

The Favorite: Only three teams this year ran the table in conference play. One of them will be the #1 seed in the country (Gonzaga). Another might face them in the 1-16 game (Norfolk State). The third? You got it -- Memphis. Perhaps bolstered by the hurricane of booze and karaoke that some Nashville walkerbyers brought to Beale Street in late January, the Tigers have won 21 of their last 22 games, including 2 double-digit wins over Southern Miss, the only other team that has a prayer in this tournament. Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Robert Dozier aren't walking through that door, which tells you how bad C-USA is when Memphis can still go a perfect 16-0.

The Darkhorse: Houston sophomore guard Joseph Young led the conference in scoring (18.5 ppg), and the Cougars finished 7th in the nation in scoring at 78.6 ppg. Houston was one of only two C-USA teams to really give Memphis a game at the FedEx Forum (losing 81-74 on Feb. 20), and the #6 seed Cougars won this tournament from the #7 line just three years ago. It'll be tough sailing to knock down Memphis, but the Cougars can at least out-score anyone in this league.

Why You Should Watch: Have I mentioned that conference realignment is murdering everything you know and love about college basketball? Memphis is leaving next year for the "America 12," along with seemingly half this league, and the replacements behind them make Keanu Reeves look like Tom Hanks. So as bad as C-USA is now, get 'em while they're hot ... or at least lukewarm.

Roadto592 Pick: Memphis

Southland Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
TV: Semifinals on ESPN3 (Friday, 6:00 and 8:30), Finals on ESPN2 (8:30)

The Field: Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Oral Roberts, Southeastern Louisiana, Nicholls State, Sam Houston State, Central Arkansas, McNeese State

The Favorite: Five years ago, Stephen F. Austin entered this tournament with a 26-5 record, only to lose in the semis. The Lumberjacks were projected as a 12-13 seed in that year's NCAAs, but with the #7 seeded UT-Arlington Mavericks surviving the conference tourney, the Southland was "saddled" with a #16 seed and a quick first-round exit. Who do you think the conference is pulling for this weekend? Once again, SFA comes in with 26 wins, atop the conference, and in line for a likely #13 seed. A new tournament format means the Lumberjacks will only have to win two games to claim the title this time around.

The Darkhorse: #3 seed Oral Roberts, a perennial tournament winner in the Summit League, will be a tough out in their inaugural Southland tourney. The Golden Eagles played a tough schedule this year, losing to tourney teams Belmont, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Memphis in pre-conference play before posting a 13-5 record in league play. Warren Niles is second in the conference with 19.1 points per game.

Why You Should Watch: See reasons for watching the MAC tourney. If the Lumberjacks get out of this one alive, they're worth consideration as an early upset pick from around the 13 line.

Roadto592 Pick: Stephen F. Austin

Big 12 Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
TV: First round (Wednesday, 7:00 and 9:30) on Big 12 Network, Quarterfinals on ESPN2 (Thursday, 12:30 and 3:00) and Big 12 Network (7:00 and 9:30), Semifinals on ESPNU (Friday, 7:00 and 9:30), Finals on ESPN (Saturday, 6:00)

The Field: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU

The Favorite: What a year in the Big 12. We all thought Kansas had finally taken a mid-season losing streak, put everything on Elliott Johnson's back, and ridden off into another easy conference title and 1-seed, like they always do. Then that Baylor game happened. Does Bill Self's team not give a crap when the stakes are low? Does that mean they won't really care about winning this thing, which no current conference member other than Kansas has done since 2005? For the Jayhawks, it's simply a matter of efficiency from the field -- in their four Big 12 losses, Kansas shot 38.4%, including a middle school-esque 18-61 against TCU; in their other 27 games (including a loss to Michigan State), they shot 48.7%. The Jayhawks could be very tested as soon as the semis, when they likely face either Oklahoma (who won in Norman) or Iowa State (who should have won in Ames).

The Darkhorse: You think Iowa State doesn't want another shot at Kansas? Colorado was robbed of a win at Arizona because of one missed look at the clock and ball-in-hand. Iowa State suffered a series of head-scratchers down the stretch in a game they HAD in the bag. Fortunately for the Cyclones, they're likely to get an NCAA bid anyway barring a blowout loss to Oklahoma in the quarters, but you know they'd love another shot at the Jayhawks in the semis in a game that will mean a whole lot more to ISU than it does to KU.

Why You Should Watch: The top three teams in this conference could all find themselves as 4 seeds or better in the NCAAs. This league doesn't have the overall numbers, but its top teams can do damage against just about anyone in the country. And if you're not a fan of barn-burners like Georgetown 61, Syracuse 39, I suggest you tune into this one to see more games like Kansas 108, Iowa State 96 or Oklahoma State 85, Kansas 80.

Roadto592 Pick: Kansas

Southeastern Conference

When: Wednesday through Sunday

Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
TV: First round (Wednesday, 7:30 and 10:00) and second round (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00) on SEC Network, Quarterfinals on ESPNU (Friday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:00 and 3:30) and Finals (Sunday, 1:00) on ABC

The Field: Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn

The Favorite: By default, the Gators have to be considered the most likely candidate to cut down the nets here. Only two teams -- Florida and Missouri -- can be considered virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament (and it would certainly behoove Mizzou not to lose on Thursday to the Texas A&M-Auburn winner). Everyone seeded 2-5 is squarely on the bubble. Florida was perched as high as a #1 seed a month ago, yet in their last 6 games, the Gators have choked (not chomped) down the stretch, losing three times in games where they had a late lead. Florida would possibly perch themselves back up to the #2 line if they won this thing, but if they lose their first game, they could fall as low as #5. Still, I can't see even giving the slightest look at anyone else to be "favored" in this thing.

The Darkhorse: Everyone not named Florida? If we're judging purely by seeding, #6 Missouri probably has the best shot to actually win from the lower lines, since they're by most accounts the 2nd-most talented team in the conference (post-Nerlens Noel). I wouldn't be surprised if anyone in the top 8 ran the table, even (gulp) the semi-red-hot Volunteers, who will probably boast the strongest fan base south of Big Blue Nation.

Why You Should Watch: Bubble. Watch. Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tennessee could all make the tournament, and they could all miss it. It's likely that Friday's Alabama-Tennessee quarterfinal (should the Vols win their first game) is a play-out game, though UT has some cushion after Saturday's win over Mizzou. It's also likely that no one outside of Florida gets a single-digit seed in the NCAAs, which would be the SEC's worst showing since 2009, when only three teams made the tourney and none got out of the round of 32 (and one of those, Mississippi State, was the auto-bid).

Roadto592 Pick: Kentucky

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Curtis Culwell Center, Garland, TX
TV: Final round on ESPN2 (Saturday, 4:30)

The Field: Southern, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Prairie View A&M, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Grambling State

The Favorite: Texas Southern boasted the best record in league play this year, a robust 16-2. The Tigers recently got a major hammer from the NCAA, though, and won't be making the drive up to suburban Dallas for this year's tourney. That leaves the 15-3 Southern Jaguars as the best team left in the field, as 15-3 Arkansas-Pine Bluff will also be staying home due to APR violations (as well as 5-13 Mississippi Valley State). 

The Darkhorse: Southern is #1 or #2 in the league in almost every statistical category that the conference lists, so it's hard to find a weakness relative to the other teams in the league. No team eligible for the tournament gave Southern a hard time in league play -- in 12 such games, the Jaguars won 8 by double digits and lost only 1, at Alcorn State. I guess that leaves the #3 seed Braves as the most likely candidate to pull the upset, but the numbers aren't favorable for anyone below the #1 line.

Why You Should Watch: With a loss in their opening round game against Alabama A&M, Grambling State would finish the regular season a winless 0-28 (0-19 in league play), the first winless team since NJIT went 0-29 in 2007-08. But that NJIT team was in just its second year as a provisional D-1 squad; Grambling has been playing at the highest level for 36 years. Furthermore, the Tigers have not even come within single digits -- their closest loss was Feb. 9, 63-53 at home to Prairie View A&M. Here's hoping that they at least keep it close against AAMU, even if they can't avoid living forever in winless infamy.

Roadto592 Pick: Southern

Atlantic 10 Conference

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: First round (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), Quarterfinals (1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), and Semifinals (Saturday, 2:30 and 5:00) on CBS Sports Network (in select markets), Finals on CBS (Sunday, 2:00)

The Field: Saint Louis, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Butler, Massachusetts, Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, St. Joseph's, George Washington, Dayton

The Favorite: This tournament and the Mountain West will be the best two "mid-major" tourneys of the year, and both will probably be better than the Pac-12 and SEC (not to mention both conference might secure more NCAA bids). VCU and Butler are the darlings of the 2011 NCAAs and made a big splash with their joint moves to the A-10 this year, but it's the Saint Louis Billikens who deserve top billing for this Barclays Center Classic. In a league that will likely get 5 teams into the NCAAs, SLU recently rattled off an 11-game winning streak, knocking Butler completely out of the rankings and relegating the VCU Rams to the second seed. SLU keeps it low-scoring, ranking 16th in the nation in opponents' points per game and boasting no scorer over 12.9 ppg themselves. They've beaten all the best this year in the new and improved A-10 and have certainly earned the #16 national ranking for late former coach Rick Majerus.

The Darkhorse: Ever since Sampson Carter hit a buzzer-beating three to knock off Harvard in UMass' opening game, I've had my eye on the Minutemen. Sure, UMass can't stop anyone, but they're second in the conference in points per game (behind VCU) and boast an electric teacup scorer in 5'9" junior Chaz Williams, who poured in 20+ five times in league play this year. The Minutemen aren't an at-large candidate, so they have nothing to lose. They also draw the similarly up-tempo Temple Owls in the quarterfinals, a team that tried to run with UMass and barely succeeded in an 83-82 win February 16; the like-minded VCU Rams would be the projected semifinal matchup. If the Minutemen can make everyone else play their game, why not UMass?

Why You Should Watch: You haven't seen these teams play a whole lot in the regular season, I'm guessing (I haven't). Get to know them, because at least 4-5 will be in your bracket come Selection Sunday. Sure, you may pick Butler because you know the name, but if La Salle is hanging around that 11 line, you better give the Explorers just the same consideration to pull the upset.

Roadto592 Pick: VCU

Big West Conference

When: Thursday through Saturday

Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
TV: Semifinals on ESPNU (Friday, 9:30 and midnight), Finals on ESPN2 (Saturday, 10:30)

The Field: Long Beach State, Pacific, Cal Poly, UC-Irvine, Hawaii, UC-Davis, UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Fullerton

The Favorite: Long Beach has consistently lived up to their favorite status in recent years, even scheduling a very tough non-conference schedule in anticipation of potential at-large consideration. Pre-conference tilts against UNC, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State, and UCLA should make Big West play look like a breeze, right? Well the 49ers cruised early (winning 12 of their first 13) before fading a bit down the stretch (losing 3 of their last 4, including a BracketBuster tilt with Stephen F. Austin). You could chalk this up to complacency after the #1 seed was in the bag, or you could view it as a sign of trouble. I'm still thinking Long Beach is the heavy favorite, though a 20-point road loss to #2 Pacific on Saturday doesn't help that assertion.

The Darkhorse: #4 seed UC-Irvine finished hot, winning 6 of their final 7 including home victories over the top 2 seeds. They're just as seasoned, going up against UCLA, LSU, UNLV, and USC in pre-conference play. And they pound you on the glass, grabbing a league-high 38.5 rebounds per game. Wouldn't you love to see the Anteaters win in something other than surfing?

Why You Should Watch: Gratuitous shots of the beach will make you wonder why you didn't move to Orange County as soon as you turned 18.

Roadto592 Pick: Long Beach State

Big Sky Conference

When: Thursday through Saturday

Where: Dahlberg Arena, Missoula, MT
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 9:00)

The Field: Montana, Weber State, North Dakota, Montana State, Northern Colorado, Southern Utah, Northern Arizona

The Favorite: Smartly, the Big Sky awards its regular season champion with home-court advantage for the entire tournament. For Montana, it hasn't mattered -- in the 7 years since the conference moved its tournament on campus, the Grizzlies have won 3 times, but only once on their home floor. And Montana even won an NCAA game over fellow mid-major Nevada in 2006. Expect the 23-6 Grizzlies to garner a 13-14 seed with a good showing here, and the prime upset position that comes with it. Don't sleep on #2 seed Weber State though -- the Wildcats crushed Montana by 24 in Ogden for the Grizz' only conference loss.

The Darkhorse: When rivalries are in play, you have to throw it all out the window, right? #4 seed Montana State gave the Grizzlies all they could handle in two matchups this year, losing in OT on the road and then dropping a 3-point contest at home in Bozeman. Junior Flavien Davis (11.4 ppg) dropped 30 points in that contest and has hit double figures in 8 of his last 10 games -- if he gets hot again, the third time could be the charm for the Bobcats.

Why You Should Watch: To see if an actual fight between a bobcat and a grizzly bear breaks out at halftime. In Missoula, Montana, I wouldn't bet against it.

Roadto592 Pick: Montana

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
TV: First round on ESPNU (Thursday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Quarterfinals on ESPN2 (Friday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:00 and 3:00) and Finals (Sunday, 1:00) on ESPN

The Field: Miami (FL), Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Florida State, Maryland, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech

The Favorite: When you have a consensus Player of the Year candidate, you should be one of the best teams in the country (Plumlee). When you have one of the top 5 shooters in the land, you should be one of the best teams in the country (Curry). And when your best player is actually someone who just came back from injury, carrying you to three signature wins down the stretch, you might just just be the best team in the country (Kelly). Duke-UNC was supposed to be a game, and it wasn't -- Seth Curry flat out taunted the Tar Heels, scoring 18 of his 20 in the first half, and the at-times-seemingly-incompetent-in-the-post Mason Plumlee kept UNC from making any semblance of a comeback. Ryan Kelly only notched 8 points on Saturday, yet the Blue Devils needed every one of his 36 in last Saturday's win over Miami. Yep, the Dukies are peaking at the right time once again, and no one should be surprised if they streak through their next 9 en route to cutting down the nets in Atlanta.

The Darkhorse: NC State could lose to woeful Virginia Tech on Thursday and put themselves in serious bubble trouble. Or the Wolfpack could crush VT and UVA, fend off Miami in the semis, and take down Duke for the second time this year to take the ACC title. Underdog status seems to suit Mark Gottfried's bunch better than being favorites -- NC State advanced to the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed (in the NCAAs) last year and came within three points of the ACC final as an 11-seed (in the ACC) two years before that. After climbing up to #14 in the country after beating Duke, the Wolfpack promptly lost 5 of 6, putting them in fairly comfortable position coming into this tournament -- no one expects them to win. NC State definitely has the talent and depth to hang with the big boys: 5 players average double figures in scoring, and Lorenzo Brown (12.5 ppg, 7.0 apg) is one of the best distributors in the country. The newly discovered underdog status could be just what NC State needs to actually get back on the winning path.

Why You Should Watch: Bubble watching is limited to Virginia here. Miami, Duke, UNC and NC State are in the tournament, but Virginia is firmly on the bubble despite their February 28 upset of Duke (a wacky overall profile includes seven losses to RPI 101+ teams and eight wins over RPI 1-100 teams). It would behoove the Wahoos to knock off NC State in the quarterfinals to really lock down that bid, as a semifinal loss to Miami wouldn't really tarnish the profile all that much. If you needed more reasons to watch this tournament, look no further than Duke-UNC III and Duke-Miami III (if they happen). A dominant performance by the Blue Devils should vault them up to the #1 overall line entering the tournament.

Roadto592 Pick: Duke

Big 10 Conference

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV: First round on Big Ten Network (Thursday, 12:00 and 2:30) and ESPN2 (6:30 and 9:00), Quarterfinals on ESPN (Friday, 12:00 and 2:30) and Big Ten Network (6:30 and 9:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:40 and 4:00) and Finals (3:30) on CBS

The Field: Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State

The Favorite: Indiana played a man's game on Sunday in Ann Arbor, showing that they deserved the #1 seed in what was far and away the toughest conference in America. The Hoosiers might match up better with Duke than any other team in the country, sporting a superior post man (Zeller), the most athletic player on the court (Oladipo), and lights out shooters (Hulls and Watford). The Hoosiers' relentless pace (2nd in the country at 80.8 ppg) has been a refreshing change this season in the plodding Big Ten, but Ohio State and Wisconsin have been able to shut down that pace in beating IU this year. If the Hoosiers can keep games in the 70s (IU scored 67+ points in every conference win this year), they'll get out of this bloodbath victorious and secure a #1 seed. If they get slowed down by Minnesota in the quarterfinals, though, that #1 line they've held all year could finally just slip away.

The Darkhorse: How can you really call anyone a dark horse when your #9 seed is a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament? Sure, I don't see Purdue winning the thing, but any of the other first 9 has a legitimate shot at running the table. I see playing on Thursday being a huge disadvantage for all teams involved, especially Michigan, who was a top-5 national team all year before slipping to a #5 Big Ten team for this tourney (and a matchup with upset-minded Penn State, who just took down the Wolverines). Wisconsin might like their position the most among teams not named Indiana -- the Badgers would first draw a Michigan team that they beat (miraculously) in Ann Arbor, followed by a semifinal date with the Hoosiers (whom they beat in Bloomington) and a potential 45-44 final with either Ohio State or Michigan State. Wisconsin has three tempos -- slow, slower, and snail. It can be the most boring basketball on the planet, but if they can get those games in the 50s and 40s, they'll neutralize the Oladipos, the Zellers, the Crafts, and the Burkes that have defined the best teams in the league this year.

Why You Should Watch: If you don't watch this tournament, you shouldn't be allowed to ever touch a roundball again, much less fill out a bracket or even say the words "March" and "Madness" within 30 seconds of each other.

Roadto592 Pick: Ohio State -- barely -- over Indiana

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.

OVC Tournament Day 3: Racing to the Championship

By Andrew Hard

Semifinal #2: Murray State Racers 81, Eastern Kentucky Colonels 73

For much of the week leading up to Murray State's semifinal tilt on Friday, I wondered if Murray's fans would be as complacent as the team was for most of the season. Would they, too, realize that "this isn't last year" and not make the two-hour trek to Nashville, just to potentially see this team lose in their first game? Would they decide that the effort wasn't worth it to see a team going through the motions, unable to really flip the switch when it counted most?

Nope. Murray's fans showed up Friday night, and so did their Racers. By the time the first semifinal between Belmont and TSU was at halftime, Murray State's allotment of floor seats was completely full of yellow and blue, with about half of the lower bowl and much of the upper bowl of Municipal Auditorium dotted in the Racer colors as well. By the time the game with EKU tipped off, the poor Colonels could only wonder if this OVC semifinal was actually being played at the CFSB Center in Murray, Kentucky. And by the time Ed Daniel dunked for Murray's first bucket of the game, the Racer crowd was off and running.

An electric atmosphere helped produce by far the best game of this OVC Tournament thus far. Murray didn't blow out the Colonels, not by a long shot. But the talented, relentless Racers team that ran teams out of the gym last year showed their true colors in a big way on Friday night, out-hustling and out-shooting a gritty EKU team that prides themselves on out-hustling and out-shooting their opponents. Murray's decided advantage going into the game was on the boards, but when Ed Daniel picked up his second foul just 9 minutes into the game, that advantage was gone. When Daniel re-entered for the second half, he quickly picked up two more fouls (iffy calls at best, both of them) and went to the bench for another ten minutes. Murray played most of this game without their leading rebounder and 2nd best scorer.

Did it matter? Not with Isaiah Canaan having "the look." You know that look that really, really good shooters get, when they decide "I'm making this shot, I'm taking over this game and there's nothing you can do about it"? Yeah, Canaan had THAT look tonight. He dunked in transition after steals, about blowing the roof off the Municipal Auditorium in the process. He drove the baseline for layups. And of course, he nailed a few threes right in the face of EKU's Mike DiNunno (much to the delight of the Racer faithful). 29 total points on the night were the biggest 29 points of Isaiah Canaan's season, and the best player in the conference the last 3 years gets to give it one more shot today against Belmont.

Would you bet against Murray? If Isaiah Canaan has that look in his eye again, it will be hard to stop them.

Semifinal #1: Belmont Bruins 82, Tennessee State Tigers 73

Belmont head coach Rick Byrd is a really, really good coach -- OVC Coach of the Year, in fact. He's also a dead ringer for a really, really good basketball announcer -- Mike Breen. Can you tell which is which? I was a bit shocked not to hear Byrd scream 6 times ... though I'm sure he was thinking it:

"Ian Clark for 3 ... BANG!!!"

Belmont's best player took a long time to get going in this one, and the more athletic Tigers took advantage early. TSU was outnumbered in the fan department at least 2-to-1, but that didn't stop them from cruising out to an early 21-12 lead and making it look as if a second straight Murray-TSU final could be afoot. Ian Clark picked up two early fouls and sat for much of the first half, but Kerron Johnson picked up the slack in the scoring department to put Belmont up three at the half.

Then Clark took over. The best three-point shooter in the conference was cold even when he was on the floor in the first half -- 0-for-2 -- and the Bruins as a team couldn't hit the broad side of a barn from beyond the arc -- 0-for-10. But when you have a shooter with range just inside halfcourt, it's very hard to keep him under wraps for long. TSU couldn't seem to cover Clark in either the halfcourt or in transition -- twice, Clark had numbers on a fast break, only to pull up and bury a deep 3. While Robert Covington matched Clark with 3s of his own for a while, TSU dug too deep of a hole (21 turnovers didn't help) to find a way to pull off the upset.

Day 4 (Final) Preview

6:00 -- #1 Belmont Bruins vs. #2 Murray State Racers (ESPN2)

Belmont wins if:

1) They clean up the offensive glass. Eastern Kentucky, the worst rebounding team in the conference, held on against Murray while Ed Daniel was out, thanks in large part to three offensive rebounds and putbacks for 6'8" Eric Stutz. Belmont has a little more size to match up with Daniel and Garrett down low, but expect the Racers to win the overall battle of the boards (especially if Daniel avoids foul trouble). If the Bruins can clean up 75-80% of Murray misses, then they can get their excellent transition offense going and keep Murray on their heels.

2) They start hot. Murray can shoot you out of the gym if you let them, but so can the Bruins. Belmont weathered their 0-for-10 start from beyond the arc against TSU because the Tigers turned it over at such an alarming rate. The Bruins won't be so lucky against the Racers. Look for Clark to try to get going early, with Kerron Johnson and J.J. Mann also serving as deep threats.

3) Their fans bring it. Murray's fans were by far the most impressive in Friday's semifinal, outnumbering EKU by about a 5-to-1 margin. Belmont brought a ton against TSU, but they need to fill out their half of Municipal Auditorium tonight. If they don't, it will have the look of a Murray home game again.

Murray State wins if:

1) Canaan has "the look." Isaiah Canaan may have shared OVC Player of the Year honors with Clark, but he's the best player in the conference when he has everything clicking. Belmont will probably use Kerron Johnson to guard Canaan, giving them a bit more size than EKU did with 5'11" Mike DiNunno. Canaan proved yesterday that he can score in such a variety of different ways -- if he has the stepback, the baseline drive, and the fast break all working tonight, he could find his way to another 30 points and an NCAA bid for the Racers.

2) Canaan gets help. When Stacy Wilson and Dexter Fields are spreading the floor and hitting their corner 3s, the Racers are unstoppable. Belmont has to stay disciplined on these shooters and not double up too often on Daniel inside. Murray loves working it through the post and then to the corner with the extra pass.

3) The hair is on fire. Ed Daniel exerted his will in limited action against EKU, throwing down the game's first five points and grabbing a critical defensive rebound away from Stutz in the closing minutes. If Daniel gets to double figures in scoring, it's because he's muscling away offensive rebounds and getting to the line. Belmont needs to keep this to a perimeter game, because the Racers have the decided advantage down low.

And the winner is ...

I picked Belmont in my conference and OVC tourney previews. I picked Murray to lose to the Colonels yesterday. But I think, somehow, that these Racers have finally flipped that switch. If they can win handily without Ed Daniel, then they're even that much more dangerous with him. After seeing the Racers last night, I'm changing my pick -- I'll take Murray State to cut down the nets tonight and secure their third NCAA berth in four years.

Tune back in tomorrow for a full tournament recap and analysis of the OVC champion's chances in the NCAA tournament.

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.

OVC Tournament Day 2: E(KU) for Effort

By Andrew Hard

There's no substitute for effort -- in life, in basketball, in college athletics. The more effort you put in, the more you can narrow the gap between yourself and those that might be more talented than you. That's a pretty simple thing to say, but it's amazing what happens when it's put into practice. Effort is what epitomizes the play of the Denver Nuggets (featuring Morehead grad Kenneth Faried, above), a team without a true superstar or clutch scorer, but who is athletic and disciplined enough to just out-hustle you out of the building on any given night. Watch 10 minutes of any Nuggets game (especially against an older, slower team like the Lakers) and you'll know exactly what I'm talking about -- anytime there's a missed shot, guys are running their correct lanes, making the right outlet passes, and just flat out beating the other team down the court for an easy fast break dunk.

The same goes for college athletic administrations, and even conferences as a whole. The Ohio Valley Conference has been at the bottom of the NCAA barrel for many years, never winning NCAA Tournament games, never beating big-boy opponents, never even getting higher than a 14- or 15-seed with their conference champion. OVC champions went 21 straight NCAA tournaments without winning a game in the round of 64, dating back to Murray's upset of NC State in 1988, until 2010 with Murray State (yes, this is twice in one week I've had the opportunity to mention a Vanderbilt heartbreak). Morehead, with Faried, followed suit the next year, taking down Louisville, before Murray's magical run in 2012 culminated in another first-round win. This year's OVC champion has a chance to win a round of 64 game for the fourth straight year -- an unprecedented feat for this conference. The next major hurdle is getting an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, which many thought might happen this year but isn't realistically that far away.

CFSB Center

How have they done it?

• Commitment to winning by the individual institutions. Murray State, whom many consider the flagship basketball program in this conference, built the sparkling 8,600-seat CFSB Center in 1998 (and promptly won their third straight OVC title that season), and they regularly sell it out. You want to talk about a Level 3 crowd? Go to a Murray game when they're up against a big-time opponent. The nation was put on notice of that place's deafening noise in last year's BracketBuster win over St. Mary's. Belmont, the OVC's newest member, built the smaller but beautiful Curb Event Center in 2003.
• Commitment to expansion by the conference. Adding Belmont from the A-Sun has turned out to be a home run for the OVC -- what other conference can claim its newest member as its regular season champion? Belmont gives the OVC two schools in Nashville (its signature city) as well as a potential cross-town rivalry with longtime member Tennessee State. Having a pretty damn good basketball team year after year is more than icing on the cake.
• Commitment to creativity in recruiting and player development. Let's be honest -- blue chip recruits, the one-and-dones, don't come to the OVC. For many schools, the players that come to their programs out of high school will not play for at least a year or two (not many freshman play at all in the OVC, much less start), so the onus is on the coaches to develop these kids into quality basketball players. The OVC is also often a haven for transfers. SEMO's Tyler Stone, their best player and possible front-runner for conference POY next year, came to the program from Missouri. Kellen Thornton and Jordan Cyphers, two of TSU's best players, transferred in from Illinois State and Utah, respectively. Whether it's lack of playing time or disciplinary issues that have caused these transfers, these coaches have found some hidden gems in unlikely places and developed the talent into winning basketball programs.

The OVC may be deeper than ever -- the top 6 in the conference could go toe-to-toe with the best teams from most mid-major conferences in the country. Don't be surprised to see the OVC champion win a game in the NCAA tournament this year and continue that trend into the foreseeable future.

Onto the Day 2 Recaps:

Game 1: Tennessee State Tigers 88, Morehead State Eagles 75

I expected to be up and down the entire time (the teams combined for 201 points in regulation last time they met), and for the most part, it was. Morehead State needed to take care of the ball and shoot the lights out to stay in the game, and it wasn't happening for most of the first half. The Eagles tried to run up and down with TSU, often forcing the transition offense and turning it over. When they did get open looks, they weren't falling; Morehead shot 34.5% from the field in the first half and just 2-8 from 3.

TSU, meanwhile, got production up and down the lineup. You figured Robert Covington would get his points, but it was 6'5" Jordan Cyphers who paced the Tigers with 23 points, including 10-11 from the free throw line. Guard Jay Harris came through when it mattered most, hitting a big 3 and then turning a steal into a layup after Morehead cut a 55-41 deficit down to 3 with 10 minutes left. Knowing that a win meant another game just 24 hours later, TSU also went 11 players deep, compared to just 8 for Morehead (who regularly plays all 12 guys). Covington finally got his, chipping in 21 points including 3 threes, and OVC first-teamer Patrick Miller finished with 15 points. Both Miller and Kellen Thornton played 37 of a possible 40 minutes, a key stat considering the quick turnaround.

What TSU might have more than any team left in this tournament is athleticism, especially on defense -- their on-ball coverage forced Morehead to take many outside shots (which they couldn't hit, for the most part) or try to throw it over the top inside (often leading to a turnover or a contested post shot). What TSU definitely has more than any team left in this tournament is fan swag -- their fans regularly got up and started dancing with the band during timeouts, including one group of, um, filled out women in white t-shirts reading "Coach Will's Wackies." The Tiger faithful filled up their section of floor seats and spilled over into much of their side of the lower bowl at Municipal Auditorium -- if they show up in greater numbers today, they could be a big factor against Belmont.

Game 2: Eastern Kentucky Colonels 84, Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 69

EKU is one of the smallest teams in the country, and one of the worst on the boards statistically (345th out of 347 teams in the country). They have the look of an unathletic, plodding team -- several undersized guards (5'11" Mike DiNunno and 6'0" Glenn Cosey) and a tall, lanky big man (6'8", 225 pound Eric Stutz). Sure, they can shoot from the outside, but the threes weren't falling at an alarming rate in this one (5-24 for the game). So how did the Colonels cruise past the quicker, bigger Redhawks.

One word: effort. Eric Stutz gives up more in the talent department to Tyler Stone than Renee Zellweger on the set of a Jennifer Lawrence movie, but he worked his ass off inside. Stutz puts in just over 7 points a game, but he led the Colonels with 22 in this one, alongside 10 rebounds and two hits to the face. Stone, meanwhile, didn't score in the first half and finished the game just 5-12 from the field (14 points). The Colonels also got to the line at an alarming rate, shooting a whopping 45 free throws on 28 SEMO fouls, hitting 37 (more than double SEMO's 18 free throw attempts). And oh yeah, a team that gets outrebounded every game still managed to win the battle of the boards, 40-34.

SEMO's strength is 3-point shooting. Nick "Heat Czyk" Niemczyk was on fire early, hitting 3 from distance in the first half, but the Redhawks cooled off in the second half and finished an abysmal 3-22 from beyond the arc. A game that could have been a back-and-forth shootout failed to live up to its full potential, but the scrappy Colonels showed everything they're made of in anticipation of a semifinal matchup against the more talented yet less motivated Murray State Racers.

Day 3 Preview

6:00 -- #1 Belmont Bruins vs. #4 Tennessee State Tigers (ESPNU)

This is the matchup that the OVC wanted in this semifinal: the clash of playing styles, fan bases, and recent history that makes for a fantastic rivalry. Belmont plays very disciplined, efficient offensive basketball, ranking second in the country in shooting efficiency and boasting four players averaging double figures in scoring. They can run the floor, but they don't have to, because their half-court offense is one of the best in the country. TSU will miss shots, but they don't care, because they can use their athleticism to beat you in transition. That athleticism translates to defense, too -- Belmont shot an uncharacteristically poor 44.6% from the field, including a staggering 5-26 from 3, in a Valentine's Day loss at the Gentry Center. Belmont's fans and students are quintessential "Nashville hipsters" and predominantly white; TSU is a historically black college. Belmont has won big recently, going to the NCAAs 5 of the last 7 years and now the new darling of the OVC; TSU hasn't been to the tournament since 1994. This should be one of the better basketball rivalries in the South, and an early Friday night tip might just bring out the best that both fan bases have to offer.

On the court, look for both teams to space the floor with four electric scorers. Belmont's Ian Clark drops 18 points a game and shoots 46% from beyond the arc; fellow guard Kerron Johnson is 2nd on the team with 13.5 points per game. TSU will match that with Patrick Miller and Jordan Cyphers, who both average double figures in scoring and can carry the load on a given night (Miller will distribute the ball too -- 15 points and 10 assists against Morehead). Down low, TSU has the edge with Robert Covington and Kellen Thornton, who can both shoot from distance and clean up on the offensive glass. Belmont's Trevor Noack, J.J. Mann, and Blake Jenkins will have their hands full defensively, but Noack's 45.7% three-point stroke gives Belmont a tall outside threat to match Covington.

Belmont can blow teams out of the gym if you give them too many easy looks. TSU, like Morehead on Thursday, needs to be careful not to push too hard in transition when the looks aren't there. If Belmont gets down, Ian Clark is capable of taking over the game, but he's got enough help that he won't have to carry the full load. While TSU may win the battles on the boards, Belmont may not miss enough shots to make it really matter. I picked Belmont to win the tournament, and there's no reason to go back on it now.

8:00 -- #2 Murray State Racers vs. #3 Eastern Kentucky Colonels (ESPN3)

Effort. It's the word of the day, it should be the word of your life, and it's absolutely the key to this matchup. Murray State will have the three most talented players on the court tonight -- Isaiah Canaan, Ed Daniel, and Stacy Wilson. All average more than 13 points per game, and all are capable of carrying the load on any given night. When Murray is on, and when they play with effort, they are dangerous -- they beat #1 Belmont in the teams' only meeting on February 7 and won all the effort stats (edge in offensive rebounds, turnovers, and free throw attempts). When they're off, they can be impossible to watch -- they lost four of their last six games, all to teams #6 and below in the OVC (SIUE, EIU, UT-Martin, and SEMO). Will Isaiah Canaan be a distributor and facilitator, kicking it inside to Ed Daniel and making the extra pass for a wide-open shot? Or will he and Daniel play heroball, trying to force deep shots without crashing the boards and moping instead of getting back on defense?

On paper, Murray should crush EKU. But as we saw on Thursday, the Colonels are the hardest working team in the OVC. Stutz won't crack 22 points again, but if he can out-hustle Daniel and 6'9" Brandon Garrett down low and grab a few offensive rebounds to kick out to DiNunno, Cosey, and Corey Walden for open shots, EKU will stay in this game for 40 minutes. Their guards are quick enough defensively to stay with Canaan, Wilson and Dexter Fields. Down low may be a problem for EKU defensively, as Stutz will likely have to guard Garrett, leaving either Tarius Johnson (6'5") or else reserve forward Jeff Johnson (6'7") on the 6'7" Daniel.

The matchups are not favorable for the Colonels. But the effort will be there, and EKU knows that they're just two wins away from fairly uncharted territory (just 2 NCAA appearances since 1979 and none since 2007). Murray has struggled all year with the mentality that "well, this isn't last year's [31-2] team." If the Racers finally realize that they have the talent to get back to the NCAAs and win a game (or two) this time around, they'll win this game and the final tomorrow. But switches don't just get flipped overnight. I hope Murray proves me wrong, because they're damn exciting to watch when they're on. But I'm sticking with the pick I made in my tournament preview because this EKU team really impressed me last night with their effort -- give me the Colonels to advance to the final.

Follow me on Twitter for live updates from today's semifinals, and don't forget to tune back in tomorrow for a Friday recap and Saturday final preview.

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.

OVC Tournament Day 1: Redhawks Cruise; Skyhawks Grounded

By Andrew Hard

Most fans over the age of 40 probably remember Southeast Missouri State as the Indians, not the Redhawks. Alongside Illinois, Florida State, University of North Dakota, and Arkansas State, SEMO was faced with a decision in 2004: keep the "Indians" name that our fans have associated with the university for generations, or switch it up to something more politically correct? To the chagrin of very few, as it turns out, SEMO made the switch (I don't think they were as amenable over at U of I). Part of the reasoning was to have a more kid-friendly mascot, and I ask you what's more kid-friendly than a red-looking bird that no more resembles a hawk than it could a cardinal, an eagle, or a gamecock (#fatJSUfan seal of approval)?

So 9 years ago, SEMO made the switch from Indians to Redhawks. A Google search of "Redhawk" pulled up results for a casino and a security system before there was any mention of sports mascots, let alone actual animals. There's a red-tailed hawk that's native to the area -- or perhaps "red" is a subtle nod to the Native American past (unlikely, but it's worth noting that the Arkansas State Indians changed their name to Red Wolves) or to the St. Louis Cardinal fandom that sweeps the state (infield fly rule adversaries beware). Whatever it is, the name change has caught on without a whole lot of backlash from SEMO fans, who are either comfortable with a needed cultural upgrade or else not interested enough to actually care.

And that brings us to the other hawk taking the court on Wednesday -- that would be the Skyhawks of Tennessee-Martin. Formerly known as the "Volunteers" (and colloquially "Baby Vols") and the "Pacers," UT-Martin made the switch in 1995 to honor both the area's World War fighter pilot history as well as the "sky pilot" frontier-era term for traveling preachers. The hawk on their logo wears fighter pilot goggles, but their actual mascot does not. To me, this is a travesty -- I would have the hawk either parachuting in from the ceiling or actually piloting a model plane during pre-game introductions; at the very least, people outside of West Tennessee would actually know something about you, instead of confusing the school with "Martin Methodist" (a much smaller outfit in Southern Tennessee).

Semantics aside, it turns out that some kinds of hawks can actually play basketball (even outside of Atlanta). Day 1 of the OVC Tournament featured dunking, shooting, a few fans, a lot of bands, and even a Marshall Henderson sighting! To recap:

Game 1: Morehead State Eagles 73, Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks 66

As those of you who follow me on Twitter (@andrewhard592 -- stop what you're doing and add me now!) gathered last night, my seat on press row (left) provided me some great access to take dunk photos like this one (right) -- and also put my computer in great peril during any loose ball scrum. Thankfully, this old Dell lives to see another day, but the same could not be said for the Skyhawks, who unfortunately played this contest without their best player. Myles Taylor (16.2 ppg) suffered a season-ending injury in the Skyhawks' meaningless final regular season game (they were already locked into the #8 seed), so the Martineers were already behind the 8-ball from the opening tip. Where would their scoring come from, if at all?

The answer: Marshall Henderson, Jr.. Okay, he wasn't actually Marshall Henderson's offspring/brother/clone, but junior guard Mike Liabo sure played the part. On UTM's first possession, Liabo drained a straight-on 3 and let out a SCREEEEEAM as if he had just tied the game with 2 minutes left. The next trip down the court, Morehead traveled (Liabo having nothing to do with the play), and he let out yet another SCREEEEEAM. The crazy eyes and pencil-thin beard/mustache thingy didn't help matters, either. Liabo didn't hit any 35-footers or hit on cheerleaders, but his NBA range did keep the Skyhawks in the game longer than they should have against a bigger, deeper, and faster Morehead State team (Liabo finished with 24 points including 4-9 from beyond the arc).

It's a rare night where you can shoot 1-13 from beyond the arc, 61% from the line, and still have a double-digit lead most of the game, but that's exactly what Morehead was able to do. The Eagles doubled up the Skyhawks in total rebounds (46-23) and nearly doubled them in paint points (42-22), with the Morehead bench accounting for 27 of their 73 points (as opposed to just 4 for UTM). That will happen when you go 11 deep. Morehead is a big team -- four of their rotation guys are 6'7", 230 or more -- but it's unclear who their leading scorer is or if, like the Denver Nuggets (who feature Morehead alum Kenneth Faried), they don't actually need a signature player. In this one, though, depth and size were more than enough to send the Skyhawks flying back home.

Game 2: Southeast Missouri State Redhawks 78, Eastern Illinois Panthers 68

Little-known fact that only the insider access at The Road to 592 can provide: not only does SEMO guard Nick Niemczyk have a 3.88 GPA (best among all OVC basketball players), but it turns out he can shoot too! It must be a Costanza-like physics analysis of basketball trajectory or something. Niemczyk -- and the rest of the Redhawks -- were flat unconscious in a Feb. 28 win over Austin Peay, hitting an OVC-record 20 3-pointers in a 108-81 blowout (Niemczyk went 5-10, while fellow guard Corey Wilford shot an astonishing 8-12 from behind the arc). The Redhawks may have had a bad start to the season, but this game was the breakout performance that showed just how good SEMO can be.

The Redhawks didn't disappoint in this one, running a four-guard offense around 6'8" Tyler Stone with Wilford, Niemczyk, Marland Smith, and coach's kid Lucas Nutt (again, yes, the coach's name is Dickey Nutt). Offensive efficiency was off the charts for SEMO in the first half, as wide-open shooters littered the perimeter for Stone's extra passes, ready to make it rain from beyond the arc. If they didn't shoot, SEMO ran it back door for Stone for an alley-oop. In the first half, the Redhawks were 6-12 from beyond the arc, with Stone a perfect 6-6 from the field for 12 points. Things cooled off a bit in the second half as SEMO tried to work it inside more, but the lead was always double-digits in this easy win. EIU's Josh Piper (19 points) and Alex Austin (17) kept it from being a total disaster for the Panthers.

Day 2 Preview

6:00 -- #4 Tennessee State Tigers vs. #5 Morehead State Eagles

The Morehead-TSU matchup on February 28 might have been the game of the year in the OVC, and maybe the non-OT game of the year in all of college basketball. The Eagles usually make their living outrebounding people (as they did against Martin), but in this 101-100 victory, they actually shot it well too -- 61.7% from the field and 60% (15-25) from beyond the arc. 11 Eagles scored, led by 23 from Angelo Warner, and five notched double figures. The Tigers didn't shoot it as well (46.2%), but boy was there a parade to the free throw line -- 30-38 for TSU on 29 Morehead fouls. Four TSU players scored double figures in that one, led by Kellen Thornton's 29 and Robert Covington's 23.

If this game was any indication, this might be the wildest game of the entire tournament. When TSU wins, it likes to score in the 80s (the Tigers notched 80+ in 7 of their 8 wins since January 10) and use big, athletic forwards Thornton and Covington to space the floor, run the break, and crash the boards. When Morehead wins, it likes to score at least 70 (the Eagles notched 70+ in 6 of their last 7 wins), go 11-12 deep, run the floor, press you on defense, and crash the offensive boards. Maybe they'll give up a fast break or 5, but they're coming right back on the other end. Morehead's Achilles heel is its outside shooting -- they rained 3s in the last win over TSU, but went 4-14 in a loss to woeful Tennessee Tech (and the old guys) on March 2 and couldn't hit the broad side of a barn against UT-Martin. They had the size to pound Martin and cash in second-chance points, but they won't have that luxury against the bigger, more athletic Tigers.

If the Eagles hit from the outside, this game could win up in the 90s because TSU will keep up that frenetic pace. If the 3s aren't falling, Morehead is in trouble. Because they're coming off a game yesterday and won't be as fresh as the rested Tigers, I don't see this as the game where the lights suddenly come on from beyond the arc. That's why I'm taking Tennessee State to advance to the semifinals against Belmont.

8:00 -- #3 Eastern Kentucky Colonels vs. #6 Southeast Missouri State Redhawks

The Colonels have won this year on the strength of their outside shooting -- Mike DiNunno and Glenn Cosey combined for 39 points, including 6-12 from beyond the arc, in EKU's 81-72 win at SEMO in February. But SEMO is a different team now, playing by far their best basketball of the season in the last 3 games. Rumor has it that Tyler Stone came down with the flu prior to the Austin Peay game, meaning that Dickey Nutt had to improvise and bring him off the bench, going with a four-guard lineup most of the game. You saw the 3-point shooting numbers -- I'd say it worked out. The Redhawks won handily at Murray on Saturday to close the regular season, and the momentum hasn't stopped. EKU will be facing a different Redhawks team this time around, and they're going to have to get more defensively from forward Eric Stutz, their best chance to stop Stone in and around the paint. If Stutz can stay disciplined and avoid the back cuts, SEMO will have to settle for Stone going back-to-the-basket or kicking out to the shooters. SEMO has shown that they can make it rain, but EKU would be wise to make the Redhawks prove they're on fire from beyond the arc first.

If SEMO has a weakness defensively, it's with the dribble drive. Alex Austin and Morris Woods got to the line a fair amount for EIU yesterday (12-12 combined), so the Colonels can look to exploit that with their explosive guards. The Colonels also like to employ a four-guard offense around Stutz, so the drive-and-kick could really test the Redhawks' on-ball defense. This game will absolutely come down to EKU making their outside shots, since they will have a very difficult time grabbing rebounds with Stone and Nino Johnson manning the paint for SEMO.

Both teams only go about 7 deep, so don't expect a whole lot of running. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another high-scoring game in the nightcap, since both teams shoot so well from the outside. I picked EKU to make the finals in yesterday's preview, so I won't back down from that selection. But I'm very worried about this matchup for them. Colonels by a hair to advance to Friday's semifinal against Murray State.

Follow me on Twitter for live updates from today's quarterfinal, and don't forget to tune back in tomorrow for a Thursday recap and Friday semifinal preview.

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.

March Madness, Meet Music City

By Andrew Hard

Welcome to The Road to 592's exclusive coverage of the 2013 OVC Men's Basketball Tournament! From Ian Clark to Isaiah Canaan, Eastern Kentucky to Eastern Illinois, and #TTUoldguys to #fatJSUfan, it's been quite an exciting year in the Ohio Valley (okay, admittedly JSU-TTU left a little something to be desired). From 12 teams in the regular season, it's now down to 8 for the conference tournament this week right here in Music City. Who will take home the title? How far will they go in March? Which school's fans will get my first hashtag (hint: not JSU or TTU, though I'm sure the old guys are still petitioning the OVC to get some of those calls reversed)? Read on, and be sure to follow me throughout the tournament for daily updates on the #MusicCityMadness!

What is the format and the schedule?

When you have a conference like the OVC, where at-large bids are merely a figment of your imagination, you have to get a little creative to try to ensure that your top seed will actually win the tournament. For the OVC, that means giving your top two seeds a bye straight to the semifinal round. So for Belmont and Murray State, the road doesn't start until Friday, and it would take just two wins to take home the title and the automatic NCAA bid that comes with it. The #3 and #4 seeds have a bye to the "quarterfinal" round, so they would have to win three games, while the #5 through #8 seeds all play in the first round and would have to win four games in four days. Sadly, everyone below that #8 line has to go home early, and that kicks out Tennessee Tech (and the old guys), Austin Peay, and SIU-Edwardsville (Jacksonville State is ineligible for postseason due to low APR scores -- they'd otherwise be the #5 seed).

So this means that the schedule is as follows -- all games at Nashville Municipal Auditorium, and all times CT:

Wednesday (first round)

#5 Morehead State vs. #8 Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

#6 SE Missouri State vs. #7 Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

Thursday (quarterfinals)

#4 Tennessee State vs. Morehead State/Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

#3 Eastern Kentucky vs. SE Missouri State/Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

Friday (semifinals)

#1 Belmont vs. Tennessee State/Morehead State/Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ESPNU)

#2 Murray State vs. Eastern Kentucky/SE Missouri State/Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ESPN3)

Saturday (final)

6:00, ESPN2

Who's in the field?

Glad you asked. Here's a rundown of all eight participating teams:

1. Belmont Bruins (24-6, 14-2 OVC)

The Bruins have home-court advantage of sorts in this tournament, playing their games just 3.4 miles from the Nashville Municipal Auditorium on their West Nashville campus. Many questioned how Belmont, a five-time winner of the Atlantic Sun Conference, would adjust to the deeper OVC in their first season. Well, coach Rick Byrd was named OVC Coach of the Year, Ian Clark earned co-OVC Player of the Year, and the Bruins won 14 of their 16 league games and outscored opponents by an average of 15.7 points per game. I'd say the critics were answered. The Bruins like to run you out of the gym -- they've scored 90 points in four of their wins and 100 points twice, they have four players averaging double figures in scoring (led by Clark's 18.5), and they rank second in the country in effective FG percentage and shooting efficiency. If the Bruins have a weakness, though, it's on the boards: of the 8 tournament teams, Belmont is just 6th in defensive rebounding percentage and 5th in offensive rebounding percentage. Their leading rebounders, Trevor Noack and Blake Jenkins, check in at just 6'7", which could present a problem against the likes of Ed Daniel and Robert Covington. But if the shots are going in at such an alarming rate, the Bruins won't even need those boards in the first place.

2. Murray State Racers (20-9, 10-6 OVC)

You just might remember the Racers from last year's remarkable run. Murray State won their first 23 games in 2011-2012, eventually earning a 6-seed and losing a heartbreaker to Marquette in the second round (or I guess they're calling it "third round" now) of the NCAAs. The Racers figured to take a bit of a step back this year, as they lost 2nd- and 3rd-leading scorers Donte Poole and Ivan Aska to graduation. Senior Isaiah Canaan figured to carry the load, and he did -- 21.6 points per game to lead the OVC in scoring (good for co-POY alongside Clark). Senior forward Ed Daniel averaged a double-double, 13.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. Another senior, guard Stacey Wilson, put up 13.0 points per game. So why did the Racers only finish 10-6 (earning the OVC Western Division championship and automatic #2 seed, despite having a worse record than the next two teams)? Part of it was late-season complacency: Murray lost 4 of its final 6 games after that #2 seed was already good and locked up. But that could potentially be indicative of a larger problem: despite having so many seniors on the squad, the Racers often look like a team going through the motions, settling for too many outside jumpers instead of doing what they do best -- working it inside through Daniel (inside-outside passing) or Canaan (driving and kicking). Their talent can easily carry them past the best in the country and the OVC, as they exhibited in a 79-74 win over Belmont in the teams' only meeting February 7 and a run to the Charleston Classic final in November. The big question here thus becomes: which Murray team will show up? If they're playing to their full potential, everyone's in trouble, including Belmont AND the poor 4-5 seed that draws the Racers in the NCAAs. But if they're just going through the motions, EKU could blow them out of the gym in the semis.

3. Eastern Kentucky Colonels (23-8, 12-4 OVC)

EKU comes into the tournament hot, winning 6 of its final 7 conference games (the only loss coming Saturday, at TSU in overtime). Like Belmont, the Colonels are a little bit undersized, but they can shoot you out of the building -- three players average in double figures in scoring, led by 5'11" senior guard Mike DiNunno (15.4) and 6'0" junior guard Glenn Cosey (15.2). As you might imagine, the boards are a little tough for EKU -- they're last among the 8 tourney teams in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and they check in at 345th in the country in total rebounds per game -- 3rd to last. But the Colonels still might represent the most dangerous threat to Belmont and Murray atop the bracket -- EKU won at Murray by double digits in the teams' only meeting January 9, and Cosey missed the two Belmont games, both losses, with a broken finger (Belmont's January 26 win in Richmond was the only home game EKU lost all year). The Colonels draw the winner of today's SEMO-EIU matchup before a potential Friday date with the Racers -- if they can win that one, EKU might just match up well enough with Belmont to make the third time the charm.

4. Tennessee State Tigers (17-13, 11-5 OVC)

While the Tigers may have some of the most apathetic fans in the country -- less than one-third of the 10,500-seat Gentry Center was full for TSU's Feb. 14 win over cross-town foe Belmont -- the actual men on the hardwood come to play every single night. TSU might have the best NBA prospect in the conference in 6'9" forward Robert Covington, who can really fill up the stat sheet -- score (16.8 ppg), rebound (7.8 rpg), shoot from long range (38.1% from 3, making 1.6 per game), and block shots (1.4 per game). Covington missed 10 games at the beginning of conference play with a torn meniscus, during which the Tigers still went 7-3. But after his return, TSU won 5 of their final 7 conference games, including said double-digit win over Belmont where Covington scored 25 points. But the offensive potency here is not limited to one man -- senior forward Kellen Thornton, at 6'7", is good for 15.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and two other Tigers also notch double figures in scoring. The Tigers certainly have the size to match up with the likes of Belmont and EKU, and they too have the tournament in their backyard. A Belmont-TSU semifinal matchup could signal the start of a budding cross-town rivalry -- assuming their fans actually make the trip.

5. Morehead State Eagles (14-17, 8-8 OVC)

The Eagles made headlines early this season for all the wrong reasons. The school suspended coach Sean Woods one game after he pushed senior guard Devon Atkinson on the bench during a loss to Kentucky, a game the Eagles were in at halftime before fading down the stretch. OVC play was only marginally better for Morehead -- they only won two games against teams in the top four in the conference, but both of those wins came against TSU (whom the Eagles would draw in the second round). The Eagles play at a frenetic pace, notching 100+ points four times this season, but are liable to get blown out of the building if their pressure defense leads to too many fast break points (9 of their 17 losses have been by double figures). The scoring is spread out -- senior forward Milton Chavis leads with 11.0 points per game, and 8 Eagles average 6 or more points per game. Still, Morehead would love to repeat their 101-100 regulation win at TSU from last Thursday, should the Eagles get by UT-Martin and draw the Tigers in Thursday's contest.

6. SE Missouri State Redhawks (16-15, 8-8 OVC)

A 1-7 stretch in January doomed the Redhawks from cracking the top half of the bracket, but they rebounded nicely, winning 5 of their final 6 conference games to finish at .500. SEMO has made the NCAA Tournament only once -- back in 2000, when a nice three-year run under coach Gary Garner culminated in the school's only OVC championship. It's been a long road back since a 3-27 (0-18 OVC) finish in 2008-09, but head coach Dickey Nutt -- yes, that's his real name -- has the Redhawks in the OVC tournament for the third straight year. SEMO might be one year away; they're only graduating 3 of their 8 rotation players, and 6'8" junior forward Tyler Stone (15.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg) could be a first-team All-OVC player next year. Whether his size and rebounding ability gives EKU any serious problems is yet to be seen, but it's worth noting that the Redhawks have defeated the Colonels in each of the last two OVC tournaments. Stone, along with senior guard Corey Wilford (14.8 ppg), should at least be enough to get SEMO past EIU and give EKU a tough matchup on Thursday.

7. Eastern Illinois Panthers (11-20, 6-10 OVC)

At one point this season, the Panthers went 56 days without a win -- after winning Nov. 24 against Houston Baptist, EIU lost 12 in a row before a Jan. 19 triumph at Austin Peay. Here are some things you can do in 56 days:

-Fly from Nashville to Sydney and back -- a 42-hour roundtrip -- 32 times

-Watch Ken Burns' documentary "Baseball" -- an 18.5 hour movie -- 72 times

-Watch the 2008 Detroit Lions lose 8 games -- halfway to 0-16

-Travel 28% of the way to Mars -- a distance of 39,146,520 miles

The Panthers righted the ship, winning 6 of their final 10 conference games including a 61-46 win over SIUE on Saturday to qualify for the tournament. They split with Wednesday foe SEMO, prevailing in overtime at home but losing by 13 in Cape Girardeau. EIU doesn't score a lot (60.3 ppg is 306th in the country) and doesn't play great defense (329th in the country in opponents' effective FG percentage), but they did beat Murray State back on February 16, showing that they aren't afraid of the big boys (though they followed it up with a 31-point home loss to Belmont). Junior guard Morris Woods paces the scoring at 10.9 points per game.

8. Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (9-20, 5-11 OVC)

A season sweep of SIU-Edwardsville was good enough to get the Skyhawks on the bottom line in this year's field. Considering that last year's squad went 0-16 in OVC play with only two wins against D1 competition, I'd say that even making it into the tournament counts as an accomplishment for fourth-year head coach Jason James. The Skyhawks can score a little (67.0 ppg), led by sophomore forward Myles Taylor (16.2 ppg), so the matchup with Morehead is fairly favorable. I wouldn't look too far past that if I were a Skyhawk, though -- Martin's next opponent, TSU, trounced them by 32 in Nashville on January 10. Still, a good showing in the Morehead game should give this team some optimism heading into next season, even though I still don't know exactly what a "Skyhawk" is, as opposed to any regular kind of hawk. If this game gets out of hand, it looks like I have a project for the second half.

So who's going to win this thing?

As my full conference preview told you, Belmont is the heavy favorite for a reason. I see the Bruins fending off a determined TSU team in the semifinals before taking down Eastern Kentucky in Saturday's final, after the Colonels put Murray State out of their misery. Give me Morehead and SEMO today -- meaning that I'm picking all chalk except for EKU over Murray. But it's March, so anything can happen, right?

(Well, except the #TTUoldguys making an appearance. If I hear crotchety yelling at the refs for no reason, though, then I'll have to double take...)

Stay tuned for tomorrow's post, recapping the Morehead-Martin and SEMO-EIU games and looking ahead to Thursday's quarterfinal action.

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.