Oskee Wow Wow Wow!

By Andrew Hard

Yesterday's Game: Illinois 74, #1 Indiana 72 (Assembly Hall, Champaign, IL)

As you all may know, college basketball is the greatest sport that has ever been invented. As a Vandy fan (2008, 2010, 2011 ....), I hate to admit that upsets are the best part. I've been on both sides enough to notice some trends common to many of these Goliath-slaying games -- call it "The Anatomy of an Upset." 

1. Outshoot the other team from 3-point land.

Your average mid-major team usually can't successfully recruit anyone above 6'8", maybe 6'9". Anyone that tall automatically gets an offer from one of the big boys unless a) your low-post moves resemble Elaine Benes' "little kicks", b) you weigh only slightly less than the average Hogette, or c) you miss wide-open layups in the closing seconds of a two-point game (oh wait, Josh Henderson actually DOES still have a scholarship to play basketball in the Southeastern Conference). Almost every major team will have a significant size advantage over a team from the CAA, OVC, SoCon, and any other conference occupying those 12 and 13 lines on the bracket. So how do they win?

In the words of Rex Grossman: "Fuck it, I'm going deep." Three-point shooting often carries these smaller teams past the plodding big boys, and the more the shots fall, the more you can see the confidence building and the deficit shrinking. Cases in point:

• #25 Miami over #1 Duke, 2013 regular season: Miami, 9-19 (47.4%); Duke, 4-23 (17.4%)
• #10 Davidson over #3 Wisconsin, 2008 Sweet 16: Davidson, 12-24 (50.0%); Wisconsin, 8-23 (34.8%)
• #13 Siena over #4 Vanderbilt, 2008 first round: Siena, 9-20 (45.0%); Vanderbilt, 4-20 (20.0%)
• #11 George Mason over #1 UConn, 2006 Elite 8: George Mason, 9-18 (50.0%); UConn, 7-22 (31.8%)

Not every upset features such vast differences in three-point shooting. But if Goliath is NOT a good three-point shooting team, they may feel forced to get out of the flow of their offense and start jacking up more shots from the outside. Advantage, David(son).

Stephen Curry hit 6 of 11 threes when Davidson beat Wisconsin to advance to the 2008 Elite 8. Only half of them were actually attempted from the Ford Field parking lot.

2. Win the rebounding battle, or at least keep it close.

When bigger teams are getting offensive rebounds, they're going right back up for the putback. When smaller teams play fundamental basketball, boxing out and securing the ball, the height advantage can often be neutralized. Of course, when offensive rebounds are down, second chance points are down too, and fast break points are up for the smaller team (especially if they can shoot well, see #1). Some examples:

• #3 Indiana over #1 Michigan, 2013 regular season: Indiana 44 (8 O-36 D); Michigan 31 (9 O-22 D)
• #10 Davidson over #2 Georgetown, 2008 Second Round: Davidson 32 (9 O-23 D); Georgetown 33 (7 O-26 D) (This team had 7'2" Roy Hibbert, while Davidson's tallest player checked in at a cool 6'8")
• #11 George Mason over #1 UConn, 2006 Elite 8: George Mason 48 (13 O-35 D); UConn 42 (11 O-31 D) (Mason's tallest player was 6'7" Jai Lewis, giving at least three inches in height to both UConn's Josh Boone and Hilton Armstrong)

Clearly, Davidson and George Mason had it going in multiple ways during those tournament runs. Of course, the best part of any long March run is Verne Lundquist (skip ahead to 0:35 and 2:45):

BY GEORGE, THE DREAM IS ALIVE!

3. Make your free throws. And hope the other team misses.

No real explanation needed here. And only one clip will suffice to demonstrate this point:

(By the way, Kansas went 14-15 from the line in that NCG; Memphis went 12-19. Derrick Rose went 760-1600 ... or maybe I have that confused with another statistic).

So when #1 Indiana rolled into (not their) Assembly Hall last night, I was expecting the upset script to play out accordingly: if the Illini managed the glass, hit their 3s and took advantage of missed free throws, they might actually have a chance. Otherwise, Indiana would keep its run going and continue a miserable run in Big Ten play for the Orange Krush (after starting 12-0 out of conference with wins over Butler and Gonzaga). How did it play out?

Three-pointers: Illinois 9-24 (37.5%), Indiana 9-17 (52.9%)

Rebounds: Illinois 29 (8 O-21 D), Indiana 36 (8 O-28 D)

Free throws: Illinois 13-15 (86.7%), Indiana 13-14 (92.9%)

(Pause while The Road to 592 searches for a new formula for "Anatomy of an Upset"...)

(Here's one...)

A Level 5 crowd! Sometimes it's really as simple as the will to win and the ear-splitting noise generated by 16,618 maniacal orange-clad supporters hoping to see something truly magical (okay, at least 6,000 of those were actually clad in red and white). Indiana led by 12 at the half, and the Illinois crowd seemed resigned to yet another subpar performance. The feeling of "here we go again" rose with every Indiana basket, and the groans were louder every time Illinois missed the chance to draw closer. Whenever Illinois got close, Tom Crean's boys reeled off 4 straight. It seemed like the orange could get no closer than 6 points and would have to settle for another hard-fought, frustrating loss.

Until the 2:53 mark. D.J. Richardson hit a three, followed by a defensive stop. Then he hit another one to cut the Indiana lead to 2, and you could feel the roof lifting off of Assembly Hall. How Indiana could hear on their next possession is unclear, but they managed to score to regain the lead, followed by two Brandon Paul free throws to tie it back up with 37 seconds to play. What happened next was nothing short of home-court magic (and a ridiculous defensive lapse on Indiana's part).

Here's a tip: if you're attending a game where a court-storming is imminent upon the home team's win, sit on the very opposite side from the "exit" of the student section for optimal viewing of the rushing river of orange (or whatever the shirt color is). Since my buddy Fergus couldn't use his Illini frat-star pull to get us tickets in the actual student section, we ended up in the upper level on the corner, right across from the Orange Krush. The Road to 592 hasn't seen a whole lot of court-stormings (2), but this was definitely the FASTEST rush of raging students onto the court that I've ever seen (the slowest being Vandy over Florida in 2007, thanks to the leap up from the bleachers to the actual floor itself). After Tyler Griffey got behind a double screen for a wide-open, buzzer-beating layup, that court was full in about ten seconds flat.

Needless to say, I became an Illini fan for life that night. For as many #TTUoldguys, #fatJSUfanquips, and empty gyms at TSU that I've seen this year on The Road to 592, it only takes one game like this to make the whole endeavor worth it. And whenever I'm back in Champaign, taking another swig out of my Mug Club mug at the Illini Inn, someone can shout out "I-L-L!" ... and I will shout back:

"I-N-I!"

College basketball count: 17/347; Court-storming count: 2; Total count: 47/592

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.