(To skip ahead to Part II -- a review of my trip to Evansville for Saturday's game -- click here)
Welcome to the Road to 592's first installment of the Big Bottom 10. That's right, while other sites give you a full Bottom 10, we keep it to the big boys here so that we don't spend ALL day talking about the SWAC, the MEAC, the MAAC, the FDIC, the NAACP, and the ROTCTOPIP-IG (Rest Of The Conferences That Only Play In Play-In Games). This week's Big Bottom 10 is brought to you by ex-NBAer Oliver Miller, a big-bottomed man who made Charles Barkley look like Kate Moss when the two shared the floor in the early 90s with the Phoenix Suns.
When The Road to 592 crunched the numbers, things turned out so much like the BCS that you'd swear it was rigged. Rare is the power poll that has the SEC firmly entrenched in the top 3 spots, but that's exactly what you'll find here. In fact, 4 of the Big Bottom 10 are from the dirty South, where any basketball headline is safely tucked away on page 6F so that we can prominently feature breaking news on what Alabama's latest 5-star recruit had for breakfast, lunch, and dinner for the entire month of January (this is of course the case everywhere but at UK, where I woke up the day after the Kentucky Derby last May to discover that the front page of the Louisville Courier-Journal was not about the race but about Kentucky basketball recruiting). The mere mention of basketball in many of these locales is enough to cause most SEC football fans (read: non-college graduates) to act like you just asked them to multiply 2 x 4 -- in other words, they don't have any clue what you're talking about.
So while it's not surprising that there are almost a majority of SEC teams on this list, it's who is on the list that is puzzling (including a team that most are you are probably surprised I included). I suspect there will be much moving and shaking as the year progresses. But I would be very shocked if the Big Bottom 10 doesn't continue to lean heavily below the Mason-Dixon line every single week of the year.
One more note: while there is no spot in the Big Bottom 10 "reserved" for a good team suffering a bad loss, I will use this space to point out the worst loss of the week for a prominent team -- especially if it comes at the hands of one of these 10. For today, though, many of the horrible losses that have come up this year have involved our first Big Bottom 10 and will be mocked accordingly.
10. Penn State (6-4) (RPI: 150). Bad losses: Akron (by 25), La Salle (by 25)
Those of you who are baseball junkies know about the advanced sabermetric statistics that are revolutionizing scouting and the way we view players more as individuals than as products of the teams they are on. One of my favorite stats is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), first because it is fun to say (is it BA-bip or ba-BIP?) and second because it is somewhat of a fortune-teller stat. If a pitcher has a low BABIP, it means he is likely getting lucky and will start regressing; if the BABIP is high, he might start getting better.
Penn State's BABIP equivalent is its atrocious offense. Sure, the Nittany Lions may be 6-4, but they rank 293rd (out of 347) in the nation in points per game (61) and 308th in field goal percentage (39.0%). This despite playing only one ranked team (NC State) and 10 opponents with an average RPI of 166.1. So while they may have a winning record now, the metrics scream regression and a lot of losses in a stacked B1G. Don't expect Penn State to leave the Big Bottom 10 (or the actual Big 10) anytime soon.
9. Purdue Boilermakers (6-4) (RPI: 181). Bad loss: @ Eastern Michigan
If only they had beaten Notre Dame, they'd be off this list! Or Eastern Michigan ...
The Boilermakers don't have the aura of a team that should be on this list for long. They're 8th in the country in rebounds per game, they play good defense (giving up 61 points per game and holding 3 opponents under 50 so far), and they play 5 games this year against Iowa, Nebraska, and Penn State. Plus, it's not their fault that Luke Harangody has eight years of eligibility.
8. Vanderbilt Commodores (4-4) (RPI: 169). Bad loss: Marist
Yep, I'll be the first to admit what no one ever thought they'd say last year: the Commodores miss Jeffery Taylor. And Festus Ezeli, and John Jenkins, and Brad Tinsley (wait, scratch that one...)
Things got bad really early for Vandy -- Game #3 of the year was a 50-33 blowout against Marist at the Old Spice Classic, a barnburner game that would have been better if played in an actual burning barn. During the final minutes of the shocking overtime win over Xavier last week, Vandy basketball's official Twitter feed was sending out frantic tweets letting people know that the game was on TV:
ESPNU is the TV - tune it in
— VandyMBB (@VandyMBB) December 7, 2012
Are you sure? I thought we were down like 13 in the second half.
TUNE IN TO ESPNU
— VandyMBB (@VandyMBB) December 7, 2012
Okay, you didn't have to get so angry!
(On the bright side, Kyle Fuller went full beast mode in that Xavier game -- great job to come back from almost transferring and basically not playing last year. Now we just need Josh Henderson to stop playing like Ted Skuchas, only if Skuch had no hands and was dragging Rosie O'Donnell behind him as he ran around the court)
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers (6-3) (RPI: 92) Bad losses: Creighton (by 22), Oregon (by 22)
Don't let the record fool you for a second. Remember, this is a team that has made only 6 NCAAs in its history and has won ZERO tournament games (the only other Big 6 team to pull that off, of course, is Northwestern -- but if you're the kind of person who's still reading this post, you probably already knew that).
Nebraska's wins have come over two fellow Big Bottom 10 members plus four "guarantee games" -- Southern, Valparaiso, Tulane, and Nebraska-Omaha (which is kind of like beating up your 4-year old brother). The Cornhuskers haven't had a winning record in conference this century, last turning the trick in the 1998-99 season. This year, they'll be lucky to win 4 in the B1G, despite an RPI that's about 60 spots higher than I expected. Put it this way, though: when Nebraska goes to Indiana on February 13, the Hoosiers will be favored by 30. And they'll cover easily.
6. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-5) (RPI: 175) Bad losses: Iona, Nebraska
No, that's not Iowa, it's Iona. The once-proud Deacons have unfortunately fallen on hard times since the untimely 2007 death of coach Skip Prosser, winning just one NCAA Tournament game in the last 5 seasons and going an astonishing 8-24 in coach Jeff Bzdelik's 2010-11 debut with the team. The Deacs were competitive in a close loss to UConn in the Virgin Islands, so they might get off this list after playing UVA and BC at home early in conference play.
Then again, Wake was also competitive in a close win over Mercer in the Virgin Islands...
5. Boston College Eagles (5-5) (RPI: 204) Bad losses: Bryant, Harvard
As a Falcons fan, I heard it high and wide from Saints fans after they edged the Dirty Birds in Week 10, their fourth straight win in the series and 7th of 8 overall. "How is it a rivalry," they ask through mouthfuls of kitten jambalaya, "when one team wins ALL the time??" And you know what, they were right (until Week 13). When two teams play regularly and one team wins all the time, it's NOT a rivalry.
BC and Harvard, therefore, is NOT a rivalry. Same city? Check. Play every year? Check. Competitive? Uh, not so much. Harvard has won FIVE straight in the series, with ALL five wins coming on the road. But hey, BC, at least you can kick their asses in the classroom, right?
4. USC Trojans (4-6) (RPI: 105) Bad loss: @ Nebraska
USC is in the worst funk of any team on this list -- a five-game losing streak, dating back to a Maui loss to Marquette, predated Saturday's win (their first since squeaking by Texas, who lost to Chaminade, in OT). The Trojans' RPI is baffling, but the stats here aren't pretty either: No. 253 in the country in points per game and No. 213 in field goal percentage. Pac-12 play won't be easy this year, but at least USC can take solace in Saturday's 70-26 red-headed-stepchild-style beatdown of UC-Riverside.
3. Auburn Tigers (4-5) (RPI: 239) Bad loss: Rhode Island
The SEC always winced whenever ex-Virginia Tech coach Sean Greenberg was criticized for not playing a "tournament-worthy" non-conference schedule (an annual ritual whenever the Hokies were left on the bubble). In football and in basketball, loading on up non-conference cream puffs is a Southern tradition right up there with chicken-fried steak, sweet tea vodka, and awkward back tattoos. Taking a cue from its football brethren, Auburn has a strength of schedule ranking of 290, right between Marshall and Binghamton. The good news: the Tigers have won their last two games by a combined 64 points. The bad news: Grambling State and Furman were the opponents.
Further good news: the next two teams on this list.
2. Georgia Bulldogs (2-7) (RPI: 255) Bad losses: Youngstown State, Iona
Mark Fox briefly turned around a UGA program left in shambles by the historically incompetent Dennis Felton, who always felt that he did nothing wrong and was always getting screwed over by the refs (especially in Memorial Gym). I can summarize the Felton era in one image: he was (justifiably) on the hot seat when UGA won the 2008 tornado-ravaged SEC Tournament and earned a 14-seed in the NCAAs (the lowest ever for an SEC team). When CBS cut to Georgia celebrating during its selection show, there was Felton, front and center blocking his cheering players, with his arms defiantly crossed as if to say "HOW DO YOU LIKE YOUR FELTON??? GO AHEAD AND FIRE ME NOW!!!"
Well, fire him they did -- next January after the Bulldogs started 9-11. Mark Fox promptly led the team to a 21-12 record and an NCAA berth in his second season. Now, despite sophomore phenom Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and his 17.4 PPG, it seems that Athens has again realized that there are no hedges lining the basketball court. But Georgia's not even the worst Bulldogs in their own conference: that distinct honor belongs to ...
1. Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-6) (RPI: 258) Bad losses: @ Troy, Loyola (IL)
These Bulldogs didn't just lose three games in Maui. They were historically embarrassed. UNC, Marquette, and Texas neutered these pups to the tune of 46, 27, and 14-point wins, respectively, a combined 87 points. And you wonder why SEC teams have cupcake schedules. State's three wins this year have come over Florida Atlantic, Alcorn State, and UT-San Antonio. Their stronghold in the Big Bottom 10 is unlikely to change by next week after a Saturday tilt with Central Arkansas. Maybe a date with Georgia on January 12 will lift their spirits, and their winning percentage...
Click here for Part II, a review of my trip to Evansville for the Purple Aces' win over Alabama State.
--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhhard.
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