Previewing all the conference tournaments that begin this week (mostly the little guys). Next week: Part II (mostly the big boys).
It's very hard to argue that there is a better week in sports than the actual NCAA Tournament itself (particularly the first weekend). I'm going to do my best in this space, however successfully, to make an argument that the next two weeks -- the conference tournaments -- are even better than March Madness itself! Don't believe me? Here goes:
1. At this very moment, everyone has a shot to win it all (Yes, including Vandy).
That's right. With the exception of schools that are ineligible due to APR penalties (sorry #fatJSUfan), NCAA sanctions, or didn't qualify for their conference tournaments, every team has a mathematical shot to win the entire thing. Or at this point, just a shot to get into the NCAA Tournament. You think the big guys mail in these conference tournaments because they already have their bid locked up? I'm guessing you won't see that in the America East Conference -- they don't give out many at-large bids there. There's a reason Vermont goes apeshit when they win that title game: it's their only way into the Dance.
2. SO MANY GAMES!
There's even a game going on as I write this post -- yup, the Big South Conference Tournament (aka #MyrtleBeachMadness) is already underway with a first-round matchup between Winthrop and Radford. By Saturday night, there will be 14 conference tournaments going on simultaneously, with a full slate of regular season action finishing up alongside it. And just wait until we get to next week, when it's all on TV (assuming you have that trusty old ESPN3 plugin).
3. Back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
There's no rest for the weary in these tournaments, meaning that depth is tested, resolve is weakened, and the best of the best will rise to the top. Kemba Walker turned in a week for the ages in 2011, and the momentum just kept rising with every game that UConn played. Did Jim Calhoun sleep for five days? Probably not -- not with 12 million reasons to lash out at this reporter again:
4. Cinderella, welcome to the ball.
You've probably never seen MTSU play this year. You've probably never even heard of Stephen F. Austin (didn't he fight in the Revolutionary War?). And you probably think South Dakota State just sends all their graduates to go work at Mount Rushmore, polishing Lincoln's beard or whatever they do with stone up there. Yet all three of these teams have a great shot to win one, even two NCAA Tournament games this year. What better time for you to meet Cinderella than while they're bulldozing through another group of schools you haven't heard of in a conference that sounds made up? (Summit League, really? Are these schools on top of a mountain or something?)
There will be 31 conference tournaments this year to determine the automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament, and 14 of them begin this week. Who will win? What player could carry his team to an upset in the Tournament? Why should you care, anyway? Here goes (in order of start date):
When: Tuesday through Sunday (Final: 3/10 at 12 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Myrtle Beach, SC
The Field (in order): High Point, Charleston Southern, VMI, Gardner-Webb, Campbell, UNC-Asheville, Radford, Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Winthrop, Longwood, Presbyterian
The Favorite: Both High Point and Charleston Southern finished tied at the top of the Big South standings, but I've got to give the edge to the Buccaneers here (that's Charleston Southern, for those not innately familiar with all 347 D1 mascots). They might have the most exciting, and smallest, player in the entire tournament -- 5'8" guard Saah Nimley, who leads the team in scoring at 16.0 points per game. The Buccaneers have also been pretty battle-tested this season, dropping close road games at Arizona, Alabama, and Wichita State in pre-conference play.
The Darkhorse: Gardner Webb. Yes, the same Gardner Webb that slayed Kentucky in 2007 could be poised to be the first #16 seed to beat a #1 (the winner of this conference almost certainly will find themselves on the 16-line). The Runnin' Bulldogs are on the opposite side of the bracket from the Buccaneers and beat them twice during the regular season. They also have Uncle Mo on their side, sporting a league-high 7-game winning streak entering the tournament.
Why You Should Watch: It's definitely going to be close. Gardner Webb's final minute against Coastal Carolina is among the most exciting you'll see this year, complete with a Lorenzo Charles-esque putback. Plus, it's one of the only games on TV that Sunday that doesn't involve the words "Big" and "Ten."
Roadto592 Pick: Gardner Webb.
Horizon League
When: Tuesday through Tuesday (Final: 3/12 at 9 ET on ESPN)
Where: Valparaiso, IN (first round on campus)
The Field: Valparaiso, Detroit, Wright State, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Youngstown State, Loyola (IL), Cleveland State, Wisconsin-Milwaukee
The Darkhorse: If you're looking for a team to come from the bottom of the bracket and do some damage, might I suggest the #5 seed Flames of Illinois-Chicago. UIC swept #3 seed Wright State in league play, along with a 7-game pre-conference winning streak that included wins over likely tournament teams Colorado State and Mercer (plus a road win at Northwestern).
Why You Should Watch: If Detroit and Wright State hold seed and meet in the semifinals, look for a fascinating clash of styles. Detroit is 9th in the country and 1st in the conference at 78.9 points per game, while Wright State ranks third in the country in fewest field goal attempts allowed per game (47.1) and 18th in fewest points allowed per game (58.5). If you like the old guard of college basketball, root for the Titans. If you REALLY like slow-it-down, Big Ten-style basketball, you'll be looking for the Raiders to pull the upset.
Roadto592 Pick: Detroit.Atlantic Sun Conference
When: Wednesday through Saturday (Final: 3/9 at 12 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Macon, GA
The Field: Mercer, Florida Gulf Coast, Stetson, Jacksonville, South Carolina Upstate, East Tennessee State, North Florida, Lipscomb
The Favorite: Top seed and host Mercer is the clear favorite here. The Bears went an undefeated 12-0 at home this season (9-0 in A-Sun play) and also notched road wins over Florida State and Alabama. The only drama in this tourney should be whether the Bears impress the committee enough to get off the 16-line.
The Darkhorse: If anyone's going to take out the Bears, it could be streaky #5 seed South Carolina Upstate, who boasts the conference's leading scorer and fourth-leading rebounder in Torrey Craig (17.2 ppg, 7.1 rpg). The Spartans have been hot and cold all year, epitomized by an 8-game stretch in which they won four straight at home followed by a four-game losing streak. They can win big (three of their conference wins are by 27+ points) and lose ugly (by 24 at North Florida just two games ago). If they're hot though, they could pull the upset.
Why You Should Watch: Lipscomb may be one-and-done, but center Stephen Hurt (a Murfreesboro native) might have the most untapped potential of any player in this conference. He's 6'10" and a bit on the doughy side, but when he's on, he can be hard to stop. I don't see him giving the Bears much trouble, and I'm not really sure if and where you would find the Mercer-Lipscomb game online, but if you can, you'll enjoy it.
Roadto592 Pick: Mercer.
Northeast ConferenceWhen: Tuesday through Tuesday (Final: 3/12 at 7 ET on ESPN2)
Where: On-campus
The Field: Robert Morris, Wagner, LIU-Brooklyn, Bryant, Mount St. Mary's, Quinnipiac, Central Connecticut State, St. Francis (NY)
The Favorite: Robert Morris is the top seed and, as such, will have home-court advantage as far as they advance. The Colonials also have recent NCAA experience, taking #2 Villanova to OT in 2010 in a game RMU fans probably still curse about (in between bites of their Roethlisberger). RMU also leads the conference in both 3-point and free throw shooting percentage, though no one player averages more than 13 points per game.
The Darkhorse: Bryant actually led this conference most of the year before fading down the stretch to finish in a three-way for second, with tiebreakers dropping them down to the 4-seed. Junior forward Alex Francis (17.1 ppg, 8.7 rpg) might be the most complete player in the conference, and the Bulldogs won on RMU's home floor in early January. They'll have the chance to do it again in the semifinals if they can get past Mount St. Mary's first.
Why You Should Watch: Wagner's Dwaun Anderson should just have his own YouTube channel at this point. This, this and this should help get you started.
Roadto592 Pick: Robert Morris.
Ohio Valley Conference
When: Wednesday through Saturday (Final: 3/9 at 7 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Nashville, TN
The Field: Belmont, Murray State, Eastern Kentucky, Tennessee State, Morehead State, Southeast Missouri State, Eastern Illinois, Tennessee-Martin
The Favorite: Entering the season, Murray State was the prohibitive favorite to win this league, coming off a legendary 31-2 season last year and boasting the consensus best player in the conference, preseason first-team All-American Isaiah Canaan. The Racers sleepwalked through most of OVC play, though, finishing just 10-6 but atop the West division, good for the #2 seed behind the actual favorite -- Belmont. The Bruins dominated in their first year of OVC play, finishing 14-2 and earning co-OVC POY honors for guard Ian Clark (with Canaan). With the tourney in their backyard, the Bruins are going to be tough to stop.
The Darkhorse: Tennessee State finished the year at 11-5 despite missing senior 6'9" forward Robert Covington for 10 games early in the season. Covington still managed to lead the Tigers in scoring at 16.8 points per game, including 25 in TSU's Valentine's Day upset of Belmont. If TSU can get to Belmont in the semis, the all-Nashville battle could easily be the game of the tournament.
Why You Should Watch: What, besides the fact that I'll be courtside? You'll have to stay tuned to tomorrow's full OVC preview to get the full answer to this question...
Roadto592 Pick: Belmont.
Patriot LeagueWhen: Wednesday through Wednesday 3/13 (Final: 3/13 at 7 ET on CBS Sports Network)
Where: On-campus
The Field: Bucknell, Lafayette, Lehigh, Army, American, Colgate, Holy Cross, Navy
The Favorite: Bucknell blew through league play, finishing a blistering 12-2 with 7 of the wins coming by double digits. They've got the highest scorer in the conference (Mike Muscala, 19.1 ppg) and the stingiest scoring defense (57.7 ppg). They can't be stopped, right? Unless...
The Darkhorse: C.J. McCollum comes back. Lehigh's senior leader, and the leading scorer in the conference's history has been out since early January with a broken foot and is questionable for the Mountain Hawks' first game (Wednesday vs. Colgate). If they can squeeze by without him, that foot would have another three days to heal prior to a potential semifinal date with archrival Lafayette. The man who singlehandedly lifted Lehigh over Duke in last year's NCAAs could very well rise up and do the same in this year's postseason.
Why You Should Watch: I'm not sure you can. I don't even have CBS Sports Network.
Roadto592 Pick: Bucknell.
West Coast Conference
When: Wednesday through Monday (Final: 3/11 at 9 ET on ESPN)
Where: Las Vegas, NV
The Field: Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU, Santa Clara, San Francisco, San Diego, Pepperdine, Portland, Loyola Marymount
The Favorite: For the 3,845th consecutive year, the Bulldogs of Gonzaga will win this thing. What, you were expecting Pepperdine?
The Darkhorse: At gunpoint, I'd have to go with BYU, since 2-seed St. Mary's wouldn't really count as a darkhorse. But it's not happening.
Why You Should Watch: To see if it's worth picking the Zags to actually go all the way this year.
Roadto592 Pick: Gonzaga.
Missouri Valley Conference
When: Thursday through Sunday (Final: 3/10 at 2:00 ET on CBS)
Where: St. Louis, MO
The Field: Creighton, Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Evansville, Indiana State, Illinois State, Missouri State, Bradley, Drake, Southern Illinois
The Favorite: Perhaps the most fascinating tournament in the first week is Arch Madness, and the Missouri Valley Conference conference has more parity than ever before. Top-seeded Creighton finished with 13 league wins, while 10-seed Southern Illinois finished with 6. It's the 3rd time in 105 years that the MVC champion had 5 losses and just the 2nd time its cellar-dwellar had 6 wins (courtesy Dave Reynolds of the Peoria Journal Star for that tidbit). So with everything so wide open, I wouldn't be surprised if anyone from Wichita State to Evansville or even SIU actually stepped up and took this thing. At gunpoint, I'd have to say Creighton and Doug McDermott have the slight edge over Wichita State as the favorite. But it's as close as you'll ever see.
The Darkhorse: Evansville might have the hottest shooter in the conference right now -- senior guard Colt Ryan has notched 29 or more points in three of the Aces' last four games, including a blistering 31 in Saturday's rout of once-bubbled Indiana State. Evansville narrowly lost to #1 Creighton at home but swept #2 Wichita State and #3 Northern Iowa this year. If Bradley or Drake were to take down Creighton in the quarterfinals, Ace Purple's path to the title might be cleared.
Why You Should Watch: Because anything can happen. Because Doug McDermott and Colt Ryan could put on a back-and-forth show on Saturday that Jordan and Bird would be proud of. Because Wichita State and Northern Iowa have the giant-killer history that keeps potential NCAA foes shaking in their size 16 high-tops at night (Ali Farokhmanesh, anyone?). Because I have absolutely no idea who's going to win this thing.
Roadto592 Pick: Wichita State?
Metro Atlantic Athletic ConferenceWhen: Friday through Monday (Final: 3/11 at 9:00 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Springfield, MA
The Field: Niagara, Rider, Loyola (MD), Iona, Canisius, Manhattan, Fairfield, Marist, Siena, St. Peter's
The Favorite: Niagara may be the #1 seed, but you have to go all the way down to 6-seed Manhattan to find a team that the Purple Eagles swept in regular season play. I'd actually give the slight edge to #3 Loyola here, a team that won in double-OT at Niagara and has won 6 of their last 8 games. The Greyhounds also spread it out, as three players average 12.9 or more points per game.
The Darkhorse: #5 seed Canisius might have the best player in the conference: Lou Henson Award finalist Billy Baron (16.6 ppg, 5.1 apg). The Golden Griffins also have the best name in all of college basketball.
Why You Should Watch: Iona-Canisius in the quarterfinals could resemble the old UNLV Runnin' Rebels from the early 90s. Iona is second in the country in points per game (81.2), with Canisius not far behind them (72.6). This tournament is also about as wide open as any -- I'd say each of the top 5 teams has an equal shot to take the title.
Roadto592 Pick: Iona.
Southern ConferenceWhen: Friday through Monday (Final: 3/11 at 7 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Asheville, NC
The Field: Davidson, Elon, Charleston, Appalachian State, Samford, Western Carolina, Chattanooga, Wofford, Georgia Southern, UNC-Greensboro, Citadel, Furman
The Favorite: Davidson. I don't know how Bob McKillop does it, but every year the Wildcats seem to be head and shoulders above the rest of the SoCon, with or without Steph Curry. This time, he's going international to bump up the scoring -- Canadian guard Nik Cochran (9.8 ppg) and Swedish forward Chris Czerapowicz (9.2 ppg) are two of the best three-point shooters in the conference, and they're not even within 5 points of leading scorer Jake Cohen (14.9 ppg). 17-1 in league play is no joke, and the Wildcats are battle-tested for postseason play too: Davidson has already gone toe-to-toe with two likely #1 seeds (Gonzaga and Duke) and has not shyed away from playing the rest of the big boys either (New Mexico, Vanderbilt, West Virginia all dot the schedule, as well as likely Big Sky champ Montana in BracketBusters). Simply put, no one is taking these guys down.
The Darkhorse: Davidson's only loss this year was at Georgia Southern, who would get the Wildcats in the quarterfinals should they get past Wofford. I don't see them turning the trick again after Davidson won the rematch by 35. If you're looking for someone to possibly slow down the Wildcats, it could be 14-4 Charleston, who finished 2nd in the conference in scoring defense (61.1 ppg). The Cougars lost both their games to Davidson this year, by a combined 25 points.
Why You Should Watch: Joe Lunardi has Davidson as a 13-seed right now, which is prime bracket upset position. Watch them dominate this tournament, and you'll be back on the upset bandwagon once again.
Roadto592 Pick: Davidson.
Sun Belt Conference
When: Friday through Monday (Final: 3/11 at 7 ET on ESPN)
Where: Hot Springs, AR
The Field: Middle Tennessee State, Arkansas State, South Alabama, Florida International, Arkansas-Little Rock, Western Kentucky, Florida Atlantic, Louisiana-Lafayette, North Texas, Troy, Louisiana-Monroe
The Favorite: MTSU's dominance of this conference parallels that of Davidson in the SoCon: 19-1 in league play, 16 straight wins, 5 league wins by 20+ points -- including one by 52 -- undefeated at home, and battle-tested out of conference (wins over Ole Miss and Vandy, plus road losses at likely NCAA teams Florida, Akron, and Belmont). The Blue Raiders, though, don't shoot you out of the gym -- their leading scorer (Marcos Knight) only puts in 12.6 per game, though 8 players average at least 5.0 ppg (despite this, they still lead the Sun Belt in scoring). No, MTSU does it with one of the best defenses in the country, ranking 12th in opponents' ppg (57.4), 5th in team defensive efficiency (.849), and 11th in opponents' field goal made per game (19.8). That is a March-winning formula indeed.
The Darkhorse: #2 seed Arkansas State might be the only team with a chance to knock off the Blue Raiders, only because they've done it before -- the Red Wolves held off MTSU 66-60 at home all the way back on January 3rd, and they've got the tournament in their home state. I might also mention that they took down the heavily favored Blue Raiders in last year's Sun Belt tournament, all the way back in the quarterfinals. MTSU won't let that happen again, but Arkansas State could be a tough out in the final.
Why You Should Watch: Get as much of Big Red as you possibly can before Western Kentucky is eliminated.
Roadto592 Pick: MTSU.
America East Conference
When: Saturday through Saturday 3/16 (Final: 3/16 at 11:30 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Albany, NY
The Field: Stony Brook, Vermont, Hartford, Albany, Maine, UMBC, New Hampshire, Binghamton
The Favorite: Stony Brook won this league by a clear three games over perennial rival Vermont. Due to a weird "Eff You" rule in the conference's bylaws, teams that are leaving the conference the following year may be excluded from postseason play -- in this case, that screws over 11-5 Boston University, who would otherwise check in at #2 (the Terriers, along with Loyola (MD), are off to the Patriot League next year). Anything short of another Stony Brook-Vermont final would be quite an upset here.
The Darkhorse: With the tournament in their backyard, #4 Albany has to raise a few eyebrows here. Senior Mike Black is third in the conference in scoring (15.1 ppg), but the Great Danes will have to overcome quite a bit of history -- in the 33 years of this tournament, the #1 or #2 seed has won an astounding 32 times, with #3 Delaware in 1993 the only outlier. Best of luck.
Why You Should Watch: There will be no other basketball games on at 10:30 AM (Nashville time), so make up a drinking game and get your St. Pat's Day party underway early.
Roadto592 Pick: Vermont.
Colonial Athletic AssociationWhen: Saturday through Monday (Final: 3/11 at 7 ET on NBC Sports Network)
Where: Richmond, VA
The Field: Northeastern, Delaware, James Madison, George Mason, Drexel, William & Mary, Hofstra
The Favorite: Eff You rules knock out both Georgia State (headed to the Sun Belt) and Old Dominion (C-USA), and Towson and UNC-Wilmington are ineligible due to low APR scores. Throw in the fact that VCU jumped ship for the A-10 this year, and this once-proud tournament is in shambles. Of the seven remaining teams, Northeastern is the favorite, racking up a 14-4 record including a string of 12 wins in 13 games. The Huskies also are the only team in the tournament to receive an automatic bye to the semifinals.
The Darkhorse: Can you ever count out George Mason? The epitome of Cinderella could find itself back in the NCAA fold with only three wins in this shortened format. The Patriots are second in the CAA in scoring defense and boast the 5th-leading scorer in this tournament, Sherrod Wright (16.5 ppg).
Why You Should Watch: Well, um, at least NBC Sports Network is on most of your cable packages. So flip over there and be glad it's not hockey you're watching.
Roadto592 Pick: Northeastern.
Summit League
When: Saturday through Tuesday (Final: 3/12 at 9 ET on ESPN2)
Where: Sioux Falls, SD
The Field: South Dakota State, Western Illinois, North Dakota State, Oakland, IPFW, UMKC, South Dakota, IUPUI
The Favorite: South Dakota State and Western Illinois tied for the best record in the conference at 13-3, but the Jackrabbits (that's SDSU) swept the Leathernecks (that's WIU) to claim the top seed. Given that they're led by Naismith and Wooden Watch candidate Nate Wolters (22.8 ppg), South Dakota State would be a clear favorite even without the top seed tiebreaker, especially given that the tournament is in their own backyard (Brookings, SD is about one hour from Sioux Falls).
The Darkhorse: #4 seed Oakland has their own stud scorer to match up with Wolters -- junior guard Travis Bader averaged an even 22 points per game this season, including 31 in a Feb. 9 upset of South Dakota State. Oakland-South Dakota State in the semifinal round would be a sharp contrast to the other projected semifinal (if seeds hold), which would feature Western Illinois (60.0 ppg) against North Dakota State (67.3 ppg). That means that SDSU-OAK could very well decide the tournament.
Why You Should Watch: Nate Wolters is exactly the Farokhmanesh-type: the kind of player who can singlehandedly take out a #2 or #3 seed. If he shoots 9-for-14 from beyond the arc for 53 points, as he did February 7 against IPFW, the Jackrabbits could reach the Sweet 16. If not, they may not make it out of this tournament. Given their potential, you should be rooting hard for the pseudo-home team in this one.
Roadto592 Pick: South Dakota State.
Stay tuned for Part II, coming next week, featuring the remaining 16 tournaments (yes, including the SWAC, MEAC, and every other tournament you won't be watching while the B1G is playing).
--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.
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