March Madness, Meet Music City

By Andrew Hard

Welcome to The Road to 592's exclusive coverage of the 2013 OVC Men's Basketball Tournament! From Ian Clark to Isaiah Canaan, Eastern Kentucky to Eastern Illinois, and #TTUoldguys to #fatJSUfan, it's been quite an exciting year in the Ohio Valley (okay, admittedly JSU-TTU left a little something to be desired). From 12 teams in the regular season, it's now down to 8 for the conference tournament this week right here in Music City. Who will take home the title? How far will they go in March? Which school's fans will get my first hashtag (hint: not JSU or TTU, though I'm sure the old guys are still petitioning the OVC to get some of those calls reversed)? Read on, and be sure to follow me throughout the tournament for daily updates on the #MusicCityMadness!

What is the format and the schedule?

When you have a conference like the OVC, where at-large bids are merely a figment of your imagination, you have to get a little creative to try to ensure that your top seed will actually win the tournament. For the OVC, that means giving your top two seeds a bye straight to the semifinal round. So for Belmont and Murray State, the road doesn't start until Friday, and it would take just two wins to take home the title and the automatic NCAA bid that comes with it. The #3 and #4 seeds have a bye to the "quarterfinal" round, so they would have to win three games, while the #5 through #8 seeds all play in the first round and would have to win four games in four days. Sadly, everyone below that #8 line has to go home early, and that kicks out Tennessee Tech (and the old guys), Austin Peay, and SIU-Edwardsville (Jacksonville State is ineligible for postseason due to low APR scores -- they'd otherwise be the #5 seed).

So this means that the schedule is as follows -- all games at Nashville Municipal Auditorium, and all times CT:

Wednesday (first round)

#5 Morehead State vs. #8 Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

#6 SE Missouri State vs. #7 Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

Thursday (quarterfinals)

#4 Tennessee State vs. Morehead State/Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

#3 Eastern Kentucky vs. SE Missouri State/Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ovcdigitalnetwork.com)

Friday (semifinals)

#1 Belmont vs. Tennessee State/Morehead State/Tennessee-Martin, 6:00 (ESPNU)

#2 Murray State vs. Eastern Kentucky/SE Missouri State/Eastern Illinois, 8:00 (ESPN3)

Saturday (final)

6:00, ESPN2

Who's in the field?

Glad you asked. Here's a rundown of all eight participating teams:

1. Belmont Bruins (24-6, 14-2 OVC)

The Bruins have home-court advantage of sorts in this tournament, playing their games just 3.4 miles from the Nashville Municipal Auditorium on their West Nashville campus. Many questioned how Belmont, a five-time winner of the Atlantic Sun Conference, would adjust to the deeper OVC in their first season. Well, coach Rick Byrd was named OVC Coach of the Year, Ian Clark earned co-OVC Player of the Year, and the Bruins won 14 of their 16 league games and outscored opponents by an average of 15.7 points per game. I'd say the critics were answered. The Bruins like to run you out of the gym -- they've scored 90 points in four of their wins and 100 points twice, they have four players averaging double figures in scoring (led by Clark's 18.5), and they rank second in the country in effective FG percentage and shooting efficiency. If the Bruins have a weakness, though, it's on the boards: of the 8 tournament teams, Belmont is just 6th in defensive rebounding percentage and 5th in offensive rebounding percentage. Their leading rebounders, Trevor Noack and Blake Jenkins, check in at just 6'7", which could present a problem against the likes of Ed Daniel and Robert Covington. But if the shots are going in at such an alarming rate, the Bruins won't even need those boards in the first place.

2. Murray State Racers (20-9, 10-6 OVC)

You just might remember the Racers from last year's remarkable run. Murray State won their first 23 games in 2011-2012, eventually earning a 6-seed and losing a heartbreaker to Marquette in the second round (or I guess they're calling it "third round" now) of the NCAAs. The Racers figured to take a bit of a step back this year, as they lost 2nd- and 3rd-leading scorers Donte Poole and Ivan Aska to graduation. Senior Isaiah Canaan figured to carry the load, and he did -- 21.6 points per game to lead the OVC in scoring (good for co-POY alongside Clark). Senior forward Ed Daniel averaged a double-double, 13.5 points and 10.3 rebounds per game. Another senior, guard Stacey Wilson, put up 13.0 points per game. So why did the Racers only finish 10-6 (earning the OVC Western Division championship and automatic #2 seed, despite having a worse record than the next two teams)? Part of it was late-season complacency: Murray lost 4 of its final 6 games after that #2 seed was already good and locked up. But that could potentially be indicative of a larger problem: despite having so many seniors on the squad, the Racers often look like a team going through the motions, settling for too many outside jumpers instead of doing what they do best -- working it inside through Daniel (inside-outside passing) or Canaan (driving and kicking). Their talent can easily carry them past the best in the country and the OVC, as they exhibited in a 79-74 win over Belmont in the teams' only meeting February 7 and a run to the Charleston Classic final in November. The big question here thus becomes: which Murray team will show up? If they're playing to their full potential, everyone's in trouble, including Belmont AND the poor 4-5 seed that draws the Racers in the NCAAs. But if they're just going through the motions, EKU could blow them out of the gym in the semis.

3. Eastern Kentucky Colonels (23-8, 12-4 OVC)

EKU comes into the tournament hot, winning 6 of its final 7 conference games (the only loss coming Saturday, at TSU in overtime). Like Belmont, the Colonels are a little bit undersized, but they can shoot you out of the building -- three players average in double figures in scoring, led by 5'11" senior guard Mike DiNunno (15.4) and 6'0" junior guard Glenn Cosey (15.2). As you might imagine, the boards are a little tough for EKU -- they're last among the 8 tourney teams in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and they check in at 345th in the country in total rebounds per game -- 3rd to last. But the Colonels still might represent the most dangerous threat to Belmont and Murray atop the bracket -- EKU won at Murray by double digits in the teams' only meeting January 9, and Cosey missed the two Belmont games, both losses, with a broken finger (Belmont's January 26 win in Richmond was the only home game EKU lost all year). The Colonels draw the winner of today's SEMO-EIU matchup before a potential Friday date with the Racers -- if they can win that one, EKU might just match up well enough with Belmont to make the third time the charm.

4. Tennessee State Tigers (17-13, 11-5 OVC)

While the Tigers may have some of the most apathetic fans in the country -- less than one-third of the 10,500-seat Gentry Center was full for TSU's Feb. 14 win over cross-town foe Belmont -- the actual men on the hardwood come to play every single night. TSU might have the best NBA prospect in the conference in 6'9" forward Robert Covington, who can really fill up the stat sheet -- score (16.8 ppg), rebound (7.8 rpg), shoot from long range (38.1% from 3, making 1.6 per game), and block shots (1.4 per game). Covington missed 10 games at the beginning of conference play with a torn meniscus, during which the Tigers still went 7-3. But after his return, TSU won 5 of their final 7 conference games, including said double-digit win over Belmont where Covington scored 25 points. But the offensive potency here is not limited to one man -- senior forward Kellen Thornton, at 6'7", is good for 15.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, and two other Tigers also notch double figures in scoring. The Tigers certainly have the size to match up with the likes of Belmont and EKU, and they too have the tournament in their backyard. A Belmont-TSU semifinal matchup could signal the start of a budding cross-town rivalry -- assuming their fans actually make the trip.

5. Morehead State Eagles (14-17, 8-8 OVC)

The Eagles made headlines early this season for all the wrong reasons. The school suspended coach Sean Woods one game after he pushed senior guard Devon Atkinson on the bench during a loss to Kentucky, a game the Eagles were in at halftime before fading down the stretch. OVC play was only marginally better for Morehead -- they only won two games against teams in the top four in the conference, but both of those wins came against TSU (whom the Eagles would draw in the second round). The Eagles play at a frenetic pace, notching 100+ points four times this season, but are liable to get blown out of the building if their pressure defense leads to too many fast break points (9 of their 17 losses have been by double figures). The scoring is spread out -- senior forward Milton Chavis leads with 11.0 points per game, and 8 Eagles average 6 or more points per game. Still, Morehead would love to repeat their 101-100 regulation win at TSU from last Thursday, should the Eagles get by UT-Martin and draw the Tigers in Thursday's contest.

6. SE Missouri State Redhawks (16-15, 8-8 OVC)

A 1-7 stretch in January doomed the Redhawks from cracking the top half of the bracket, but they rebounded nicely, winning 5 of their final 6 conference games to finish at .500. SEMO has made the NCAA Tournament only once -- back in 2000, when a nice three-year run under coach Gary Garner culminated in the school's only OVC championship. It's been a long road back since a 3-27 (0-18 OVC) finish in 2008-09, but head coach Dickey Nutt -- yes, that's his real name -- has the Redhawks in the OVC tournament for the third straight year. SEMO might be one year away; they're only graduating 3 of their 8 rotation players, and 6'8" junior forward Tyler Stone (15.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg) could be a first-team All-OVC player next year. Whether his size and rebounding ability gives EKU any serious problems is yet to be seen, but it's worth noting that the Redhawks have defeated the Colonels in each of the last two OVC tournaments. Stone, along with senior guard Corey Wilford (14.8 ppg), should at least be enough to get SEMO past EIU and give EKU a tough matchup on Thursday.

7. Eastern Illinois Panthers (11-20, 6-10 OVC)

At one point this season, the Panthers went 56 days without a win -- after winning Nov. 24 against Houston Baptist, EIU lost 12 in a row before a Jan. 19 triumph at Austin Peay. Here are some things you can do in 56 days:

-Fly from Nashville to Sydney and back -- a 42-hour roundtrip -- 32 times

-Watch Ken Burns' documentary "Baseball" -- an 18.5 hour movie -- 72 times

-Watch the 2008 Detroit Lions lose 8 games -- halfway to 0-16

-Travel 28% of the way to Mars -- a distance of 39,146,520 miles

The Panthers righted the ship, winning 6 of their final 10 conference games including a 61-46 win over SIUE on Saturday to qualify for the tournament. They split with Wednesday foe SEMO, prevailing in overtime at home but losing by 13 in Cape Girardeau. EIU doesn't score a lot (60.3 ppg is 306th in the country) and doesn't play great defense (329th in the country in opponents' effective FG percentage), but they did beat Murray State back on February 16, showing that they aren't afraid of the big boys (though they followed it up with a 31-point home loss to Belmont). Junior guard Morris Woods paces the scoring at 10.9 points per game.

8. Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks (9-20, 5-11 OVC)

A season sweep of SIU-Edwardsville was good enough to get the Skyhawks on the bottom line in this year's field. Considering that last year's squad went 0-16 in OVC play with only two wins against D1 competition, I'd say that even making it into the tournament counts as an accomplishment for fourth-year head coach Jason James. The Skyhawks can score a little (67.0 ppg), led by sophomore forward Myles Taylor (16.2 ppg), so the matchup with Morehead is fairly favorable. I wouldn't look too far past that if I were a Skyhawk, though -- Martin's next opponent, TSU, trounced them by 32 in Nashville on January 10. Still, a good showing in the Morehead game should give this team some optimism heading into next season, even though I still don't know exactly what a "Skyhawk" is, as opposed to any regular kind of hawk. If this game gets out of hand, it looks like I have a project for the second half.

So who's going to win this thing?

As my full conference preview told you, Belmont is the heavy favorite for a reason. I see the Bruins fending off a determined TSU team in the semifinals before taking down Eastern Kentucky in Saturday's final, after the Colonels put Murray State out of their misery. Give me Morehead and SEMO today -- meaning that I'm picking all chalk except for EKU over Murray. But it's March, so anything can happen, right?

(Well, except the #TTUoldguys making an appearance. If I hear crotchety yelling at the refs for no reason, though, then I'll have to double take...)

Stay tuned for tomorrow's post, recapping the Morehead-Martin and SEMO-EIU games and looking ahead to Thursday's quarterfinal action.

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.