Championship Week Preview, Part II

By Andrew Hard

Last week, The Road to 592 broke down the first 14 conference tournaments, starting with the Big South and culminating Tuesday with champions crowned in the NEC, Horizon, and Summit leagues. The big boys have yet to take the court (unless you count a 37-37 regulation tilt between Seton Hall and South Florida as "big boy" basketball), but the six major conference tourneys will soon provide lots of fluffy bubble drama (SEC) and actual, tournament-impacting drama (Big Ten). Don't sleep either on the deeper A-10 and Mountain West conferences, who may put as many as 5 teams apiece into the tournament.

Here's a look at the remaining 16 conference tournaments, all starting this week:

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference (MEAC)

When: Monday through Saturday

Where: Norfolk Scope, Norfolk, VA
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 5:00)

The Field: Norfolk State, North Carolina Central, Hampton, Savannah State, Morgan State, Delaware State, North Carolina A&T, Bethune-Cookman, Coppin State, Florida A&M, Howard, South Carolina State, Maryland-Eastern Shore

The Favorite: It's hard to bet against a team that won an NCAA Tournament game a year ago, went an undefeated 16-0 in conference, and comes into the tournament on a 15-game winning streak. Norfolk State is cruising right now, and they'll have the tournament in their own backyard. It's hard to pick against this #1 seed, although it is worth noting that they did not match up against #2 seed NC Central in the regular season (I'm not quite sure how this is possible).

The Darkhorse: Another #15 seed darling from a few years ago also came out of the MEAC -- nearby Hampton, located just 22 miles from Norfolk State's campus, upset #2 Iowa State in 2001 just 11 years before Norfolk turned the trick. The Pirates draw the #3 seed in this year's tourney and lost by only 10 combined points in their two meetings with the Spartans. They might also have the only non-Norfolk State fans in the house should these teams meet in the final.

Why You Should Watch: If you're a diehard fan of Duke, Louisville, Gonzaga, or Indiana, you might want to do some scouting of a potential first-round opponent. Otherwise, this title game should just be filler in between commercial breaks of the big boy tournaments you'll be watching instead.

Roadto592 Pick: Norfolk State

Mid-American Conference (MAC)

When: Monday through Saturday

Where: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH (first round on campus)
TV: Second, third and semifinal rounds on ESPN3, Final round on ESPN2 (Saturday, 6:30)

The Field: Akron, Ohio, Western Michigan, Kent State, Ball State, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, Miami (OH)

The Favorite: The dream final here would be a repeat of last year's electric championship game between Akron and Ohio. The Bobcats fought off a furious charge from the Zips in the final minutes of that one, winning 64-63 and then advancing all the way to the Sweet 16. Don't be surprised if either team, whichever wins, goes on another deep run -- the Zips have an even more robust profile (24-6, 12-2 MAC, 51 RPI) than Ohio did last year, projecting them around that same #13 line in the NCAAs. I'm giving the slight edge to Akron in this one, after they fended off Ohio in overtime on the road just two weeks ago. 

The Darkhorse: #4 seed Kent State won at Akron to close the regular season and also took Ohio to overtime on the road. If anyone's going to disrupt the 1-2 matchup, it might be the Golden Flashes, led by 6'8" senior Chris Evans (16.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg). It's worth noting that both Akron and Ohio get byes to the semifinals in this tournament, so the battle is an uphill one for any team trying to break those top two.

Why You Should Watch: The last four MAC title games have all been decided by 1-2 points or overtime. You know this is going to be close, and if it's an Akron-Ohio matchup, you'll likely be watching one of the teams you pick to make an improbable Sweet 16 run.

Roadto592 Pick: Akron

Big East Conference

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
TV: First round on ESPNU (Tuesday, 7:00 and 9:00), Second round on ESPN (Wednesday, 12:00 and 2:00) and ESPN2 (7:00 and 9:00), Quarterfinals (Thursday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Semifinals (Friday, 7:00 and 9:00), and Finals (Saturday, 8:30) on ESPN

The Field: Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, Villanova, Providence, Cincinnati, St. John's, Rutgers, Seton Hall, South Florida, DePaul

The Favorite: An up-and-down season throughout college basketball actually produced a pretty clear split at the top of this conference, as Georgetown, Louisville, and Marquette all finished 2 games clear of the rest of the Big East field. But don't look for chalk in this tournament -- a #1 seed hasn't won since 2009, and the legendary "five wins in five days" run by UConn in 2011 often seems more like the norm than the outlier. Still, no one is playing better basketball in the country right now than Louisville, winners of 10 of their last 11 (with the only loss coming in that five-overtime thriller in South Bend). Gorgui Dieng might be the best big man in the conference -- the 6'11" Senegal native has posted a double-double in four of the Cardinals' last seven games and is one of only two Big East-ers to average 10 and 10 this year (Jack Cooley being the other).

The Darkhorse: No one will win five games in five days this year, since the departure of West Virginia and the academic ineligibility of UConn mean that only the bottom 4 teams play in the opening round Tuesday. But from the Wednesday crowd, don't put it past #9 seed Cincinnati to be the team catching fire all the way to a Saturday title. The Bearcats are a lot more talented than their bubble-worthy 21-10, 9-9 record, and Sean Kilpatrick is capable of a Kemba Walker-esque scoring run (just ask Marquette, who got torched for 36 points in a January 19 road overtime loss). Cincy draws beatable Providence on Wednesday before a Thursday date with the plodding, defensive-oriented Hoyas. You know that game will stay close, and if Kilpatrick has the last shot, advantage Bearcats.

Why You Should Watch: If nothing else, it's at least worth watching Bill Raftery scream "MAN TO MAN" for the last time, and weep on the air after this one is over. The Big East has been the best, most historic conference in the country for at least the last 30 years, with rivalries like Georgetown-Syracuse, Louisville-Notre Dame, and Pitt-West Virginia giving us some of the most dramatic basketball theater we've ever seen. This will be the last go-around for this conference as we know it, with Pitt, Syracuse, and Notre Dame jumping to the ACC and the "Catholic 7" taking the conference name with them to join Butler, Xavier, and Creighton next year. Take in every minute of this last version of MSG Madness, and pour one out for Lou Carnesecca, Rollie Massimino, and John Thompson when it's all said and done.

Roadto592 Pick: Louisville

Mountain West Conference

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
TV: Quarterfinals (Wednesday, 3:00, 5:30, 9:30, and midnight) and semifinals (Friday, 9:00 and 11:30) on CBS Sports Network, Finals on CBS (Saturday, 6:00)

The Field: New Mexico, Colorado State, UNLV, San Diego State, Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Wyoming, Nevada

The Favorite: New Mexico has more or less dominated this conference all year, winning 13 of 15 before a 1-point slip-up at Air Force to close the year. The Lobos have to be considered the favorites, but this is as wide open a field as ever, with as many as 5 teams on the verge of NCAA bids. Don't count out any of the top 5 to win this tournament, including the homestanding UNLV Rebels, the out-muscle-you-out-of-the-gym Colorado State Rams, or the why-don't-we-play-on-a-blue-court Boise State Broncos. But New Mexico has earned clear favorite status in this one. 

The Darkhorse: If anyone outside the top 5 is going to make a run, it has to be Air Force. The Falcons are incredibly efficient, ranking in the top 20 in the country in both field goal percentage and assists per game. Senior Michael Lyons (18.3 ppg) put up 30 in that win against New Mexico and 45 in an overtime loss to Colorado State. Air Force draws UNLV on Wednesday and wouldn't have to play top-seeded New Mexico until the final.

Why You Should Watch: There's bubble drama all over this one. The San Diego State-Boise State quarterfinal on Wednesday might be a tournament play-in game, with the loser having to sweat it out on Selection Sunday. It's in the conference's best interests to have the Lobos pull this one out, though, as they might be in line for a 2 seed if they do. New Mexico laid an egg as a 3-seed in 2010 (losing in the 2nd round) and would be looking for redemption if they made it that high in this year's bracket.

Roadto592 Pick: Colorado State

Western Athletic Conference (WAC)

When: Tuesday through Saturday

Where: Orleans Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 11:00)

The Field: Louisiana Tech, Denver, New Mexico State, Texas-Arlington, Utah State, Idaho, Texas State, San Jose State, Texas-San Antonio, Seattle

The Favorite: It wasn't long ago that the WAC would regularly get at-large teams in the NCAA Tournament. Back in the heyday of Nevada and Nick Fazekas, the Wolf Pack could afford to lose this conference title game because they were assured of a single digit seed, giving the auto-bid to the likes of New Mexico State and Utah State. Those days are long gone -- the Mountain West poached Nevada, Fresno State, and Boise State, and after next year, only New Mexico State and Seattle University will be left out of the current 10. As bad as things have been for the WAC and as worse as they'll be in the near future, they can definitely hang their hat on 26-5 Louisiana Tech, who lost their only two conference games this week after an 18-game winning streak. The Bulldogs may not have the profile of an at-large team, but they will certainly be in contention for a 12-14 seed (and prime upset position) if they win this tourney.

The Darkhorse: It's hard to imagine anyone below the 3-4 seed winning this thing, since so many of these teams are in way over their heads due to quickie conference expansion. New Mexico State, though, does pose a legitimate threat to take down the Bulldogs should they make it to the final. 7'5", 355 pound Sim Bhullar is everything you'd expect from a 7'5" freshman -- raw offensively, uncoordinated, but very dangerous inside. He would be the darling of the NCAAs if the Aggies made it, and with 10.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, and 2.4 bpg, he might be the difference-maker NMSU needs.

Why You Should Watch: Watching a 7'5" man play basketball is entertaining in itself. Especially when you're drunk at a bar for an 11:00 tip after "I swear it's just St. Patties Day Eve!"

Roadto592 Pick: Louisiana Tech

Pac-12 Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV
TV: First round (Wednesday, 3:00, 5:30, 9:00, and 11:30) on Pac-12 Network, Quarterfinals on Pac-12 Network (Thursday, 3:00, 5:30, and 9:00) and ESPNU (11:30), Semifinals on Pac-12 Network (Friday, 9:00) and ESPN (11:30), Finals on ESPN (Saturday, 9:00)

The Field: UCLA, California, Oregon, Arizona, Colorado, Washington, USC, Stanford, Arizona State, Utah, Washington State, Oregon State

The Favorite: I don't know. Arizona looked like a man among boys in pre-conference play, with that come-from-behind win over Florida still up there as one of the games of the year. Oregon had an amazing run to start conference play but barely showed up for their final 11 games. Cal took the reins from the Ducks, but pre-conference losses to Wisconsin, Creighton, UNLV and Harvard show that the Golden Bears may not be ready just yet. UCLA is the most talented team in the conference, but Ben Howland's squad often fails to show up (double-digit road losses at Arizona State and Washington State tarnish an otherwise-brilliant resume). When in doubt, take the #1 seed -- that's UCLA.

The Darkhorse: Colorado, Colorado, Colorado. After a Wednesday date with the woeful OSU Beavers, Colorado gets Arizona for the third time this season in the quarterfinals. You think they still aren't bitter about that buzzer-beating-three-pointer-that-wasn't? "Of course, this was a revenge game," said would-be hero Spencer Dinwiddie after the Buffaloes throttled the Wildcats in the rematch. Give Colorado that win, and they're an NCAA lock. Give them another chance at Arizona, and you're looking at a double-revenge game, with an NCAA berth perhaps on lockdown should Dinwiddie & Co. pull it out.

Why You Should Watch: I have AT&T, which doesn't even carry the Pac-12 Network. Most of you Comcast subscribers probably don't go deep enough in your channel packages to get it, either. Is this a backlash to East Coast bias? They might be keeping their network from us on purpose. On the other hand, Washington and Colorado are squarely in this conference's footprint, so you'd forgive them for just forgetting...

Roadto592 Pick: Colorado

Conference USA

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: BOK Center, Tulsa, OK
TV: Quarterfinals (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:00, and 9:30) and semifinals (Friday, 4:00 and 6:30) on CBS Sports Network, Finals on CBS (Saturday, 11:30)

The Field: Memphis, Southern Mississippi, UTEP, East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, UAB, Tulane, Marshall, Southern Methodist, Rice

The Favorite: Only three teams this year ran the table in conference play. One of them will be the #1 seed in the country (Gonzaga). Another might face them in the 1-16 game (Norfolk State). The third? You got it -- Memphis. Perhaps bolstered by the hurricane of booze and karaoke that some Nashville walkerbyers brought to Beale Street in late January, the Tigers have won 21 of their last 22 games, including 2 double-digit wins over Southern Miss, the only other team that has a prayer in this tournament. Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts, and Robert Dozier aren't walking through that door, which tells you how bad C-USA is when Memphis can still go a perfect 16-0.

The Darkhorse: Houston sophomore guard Joseph Young led the conference in scoring (18.5 ppg), and the Cougars finished 7th in the nation in scoring at 78.6 ppg. Houston was one of only two C-USA teams to really give Memphis a game at the FedEx Forum (losing 81-74 on Feb. 20), and the #6 seed Cougars won this tournament from the #7 line just three years ago. It'll be tough sailing to knock down Memphis, but the Cougars can at least out-score anyone in this league.

Why You Should Watch: Have I mentioned that conference realignment is murdering everything you know and love about college basketball? Memphis is leaving next year for the "America 12," along with seemingly half this league, and the replacements behind them make Keanu Reeves look like Tom Hanks. So as bad as C-USA is now, get 'em while they're hot ... or at least lukewarm.

Roadto592 Pick: Memphis

Southland Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Leonard E. Merrell Center, Katy, TX
TV: Semifinals on ESPN3 (Friday, 6:00 and 8:30), Finals on ESPN2 (8:30)

The Field: Stephen F. Austin, Northwestern State, Oral Roberts, Southeastern Louisiana, Nicholls State, Sam Houston State, Central Arkansas, McNeese State

The Favorite: Five years ago, Stephen F. Austin entered this tournament with a 26-5 record, only to lose in the semis. The Lumberjacks were projected as a 12-13 seed in that year's NCAAs, but with the #7 seeded UT-Arlington Mavericks surviving the conference tourney, the Southland was "saddled" with a #16 seed and a quick first-round exit. Who do you think the conference is pulling for this weekend? Once again, SFA comes in with 26 wins, atop the conference, and in line for a likely #13 seed. A new tournament format means the Lumberjacks will only have to win two games to claim the title this time around.

The Darkhorse: #3 seed Oral Roberts, a perennial tournament winner in the Summit League, will be a tough out in their inaugural Southland tourney. The Golden Eagles played a tough schedule this year, losing to tourney teams Belmont, Oklahoma, Arizona, and Memphis in pre-conference play before posting a 13-5 record in league play. Warren Niles is second in the conference with 19.1 points per game.

Why You Should Watch: See reasons for watching the MAC tourney. If the Lumberjacks get out of this one alive, they're worth consideration as an early upset pick from around the 13 line.

Roadto592 Pick: Stephen F. Austin

Big 12 Conference

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
TV: First round (Wednesday, 7:00 and 9:30) on Big 12 Network, Quarterfinals on ESPN2 (Thursday, 12:30 and 3:00) and Big 12 Network (7:00 and 9:30), Semifinals on ESPNU (Friday, 7:00 and 9:30), Finals on ESPN (Saturday, 6:00)

The Field: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State, Baylor, Texas, West Virginia, Texas Tech, TCU

The Favorite: What a year in the Big 12. We all thought Kansas had finally taken a mid-season losing streak, put everything on Elliott Johnson's back, and ridden off into another easy conference title and 1-seed, like they always do. Then that Baylor game happened. Does Bill Self's team not give a crap when the stakes are low? Does that mean they won't really care about winning this thing, which no current conference member other than Kansas has done since 2005? For the Jayhawks, it's simply a matter of efficiency from the field -- in their four Big 12 losses, Kansas shot 38.4%, including a middle school-esque 18-61 against TCU; in their other 27 games (including a loss to Michigan State), they shot 48.7%. The Jayhawks could be very tested as soon as the semis, when they likely face either Oklahoma (who won in Norman) or Iowa State (who should have won in Ames).

The Darkhorse: You think Iowa State doesn't want another shot at Kansas? Colorado was robbed of a win at Arizona because of one missed look at the clock and ball-in-hand. Iowa State suffered a series of head-scratchers down the stretch in a game they HAD in the bag. Fortunately for the Cyclones, they're likely to get an NCAA bid anyway barring a blowout loss to Oklahoma in the quarters, but you know they'd love another shot at the Jayhawks in the semis in a game that will mean a whole lot more to ISU than it does to KU.

Why You Should Watch: The top three teams in this conference could all find themselves as 4 seeds or better in the NCAAs. This league doesn't have the overall numbers, but its top teams can do damage against just about anyone in the country. And if you're not a fan of barn-burners like Georgetown 61, Syracuse 39, I suggest you tune into this one to see more games like Kansas 108, Iowa State 96 or Oklahoma State 85, Kansas 80.

Roadto592 Pick: Kansas

Southeastern Conference

When: Wednesday through Sunday

Where: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN
TV: First round (Wednesday, 7:30 and 10:00) and second round (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00) on SEC Network, Quarterfinals on ESPNU (Friday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:00 and 3:30) and Finals (Sunday, 1:00) on ABC

The Field: Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Georgia, LSU, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Auburn

The Favorite: By default, the Gators have to be considered the most likely candidate to cut down the nets here. Only two teams -- Florida and Missouri -- can be considered virtual locks for the NCAA Tournament (and it would certainly behoove Mizzou not to lose on Thursday to the Texas A&M-Auburn winner). Everyone seeded 2-5 is squarely on the bubble. Florida was perched as high as a #1 seed a month ago, yet in their last 6 games, the Gators have choked (not chomped) down the stretch, losing three times in games where they had a late lead. Florida would possibly perch themselves back up to the #2 line if they won this thing, but if they lose their first game, they could fall as low as #5. Still, I can't see even giving the slightest look at anyone else to be "favored" in this thing.

The Darkhorse: Everyone not named Florida? If we're judging purely by seeding, #6 Missouri probably has the best shot to actually win from the lower lines, since they're by most accounts the 2nd-most talented team in the conference (post-Nerlens Noel). I wouldn't be surprised if anyone in the top 8 ran the table, even (gulp) the semi-red-hot Volunteers, who will probably boast the strongest fan base south of Big Blue Nation.

Why You Should Watch: Bubble. Watch. Kentucky, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Tennessee could all make the tournament, and they could all miss it. It's likely that Friday's Alabama-Tennessee quarterfinal (should the Vols win their first game) is a play-out game, though UT has some cushion after Saturday's win over Mizzou. It's also likely that no one outside of Florida gets a single-digit seed in the NCAAs, which would be the SEC's worst showing since 2009, when only three teams made the tourney and none got out of the round of 32 (and one of those, Mississippi State, was the auto-bid).

Roadto592 Pick: Kentucky

Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC)

When: Wednesday through Saturday

Where: Curtis Culwell Center, Garland, TX
TV: Final round on ESPN2 (Saturday, 4:30)

The Field: Southern, Jackson State, Alcorn State, Prairie View A&M, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Grambling State

The Favorite: Texas Southern boasted the best record in league play this year, a robust 16-2. The Tigers recently got a major hammer from the NCAA, though, and won't be making the drive up to suburban Dallas for this year's tourney. That leaves the 15-3 Southern Jaguars as the best team left in the field, as 15-3 Arkansas-Pine Bluff will also be staying home due to APR violations (as well as 5-13 Mississippi Valley State). 

The Darkhorse: Southern is #1 or #2 in the league in almost every statistical category that the conference lists, so it's hard to find a weakness relative to the other teams in the league. No team eligible for the tournament gave Southern a hard time in league play -- in 12 such games, the Jaguars won 8 by double digits and lost only 1, at Alcorn State. I guess that leaves the #3 seed Braves as the most likely candidate to pull the upset, but the numbers aren't favorable for anyone below the #1 line.

Why You Should Watch: With a loss in their opening round game against Alabama A&M, Grambling State would finish the regular season a winless 0-28 (0-19 in league play), the first winless team since NJIT went 0-29 in 2007-08. But that NJIT team was in just its second year as a provisional D-1 squad; Grambling has been playing at the highest level for 36 years. Furthermore, the Tigers have not even come within single digits -- their closest loss was Feb. 9, 63-53 at home to Prairie View A&M. Here's hoping that they at least keep it close against AAMU, even if they can't avoid living forever in winless infamy.

Roadto592 Pick: Southern

Atlantic 10 Conference

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
TV: First round (Thursday, 1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), Quarterfinals (1:00, 3:30, 7:30, and 10:00), and Semifinals (Saturday, 2:30 and 5:00) on CBS Sports Network (in select markets), Finals on CBS (Sunday, 2:00)

The Field: Saint Louis, VCU, Temple, La Salle, Butler, Massachusetts, Xavier, Richmond, Charlotte, St. Joseph's, George Washington, Dayton

The Favorite: This tournament and the Mountain West will be the best two "mid-major" tourneys of the year, and both will probably be better than the Pac-12 and SEC (not to mention both conference might secure more NCAA bids). VCU and Butler are the darlings of the 2011 NCAAs and made a big splash with their joint moves to the A-10 this year, but it's the Saint Louis Billikens who deserve top billing for this Barclays Center Classic. In a league that will likely get 5 teams into the NCAAs, SLU recently rattled off an 11-game winning streak, knocking Butler completely out of the rankings and relegating the VCU Rams to the second seed. SLU keeps it low-scoring, ranking 16th in the nation in opponents' points per game and boasting no scorer over 12.9 ppg themselves. They've beaten all the best this year in the new and improved A-10 and have certainly earned the #16 national ranking for late former coach Rick Majerus.

The Darkhorse: Ever since Sampson Carter hit a buzzer-beating three to knock off Harvard in UMass' opening game, I've had my eye on the Minutemen. Sure, UMass can't stop anyone, but they're second in the conference in points per game (behind VCU) and boast an electric teacup scorer in 5'9" junior Chaz Williams, who poured in 20+ five times in league play this year. The Minutemen aren't an at-large candidate, so they have nothing to lose. They also draw the similarly up-tempo Temple Owls in the quarterfinals, a team that tried to run with UMass and barely succeeded in an 83-82 win February 16; the like-minded VCU Rams would be the projected semifinal matchup. If the Minutemen can make everyone else play their game, why not UMass?

Why You Should Watch: You haven't seen these teams play a whole lot in the regular season, I'm guessing (I haven't). Get to know them, because at least 4-5 will be in your bracket come Selection Sunday. Sure, you may pick Butler because you know the name, but if La Salle is hanging around that 11 line, you better give the Explorers just the same consideration to pull the upset.

Roadto592 Pick: VCU

Big West Conference

When: Thursday through Saturday

Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
TV: Semifinals on ESPNU (Friday, 9:30 and midnight), Finals on ESPN2 (Saturday, 10:30)

The Field: Long Beach State, Pacific, Cal Poly, UC-Irvine, Hawaii, UC-Davis, UC-Santa Barbara, Cal State-Fullerton

The Favorite: Long Beach has consistently lived up to their favorite status in recent years, even scheduling a very tough non-conference schedule in anticipation of potential at-large consideration. Pre-conference tilts against UNC, Arizona, Syracuse, Ohio State, and UCLA should make Big West play look like a breeze, right? Well the 49ers cruised early (winning 12 of their first 13) before fading a bit down the stretch (losing 3 of their last 4, including a BracketBuster tilt with Stephen F. Austin). You could chalk this up to complacency after the #1 seed was in the bag, or you could view it as a sign of trouble. I'm still thinking Long Beach is the heavy favorite, though a 20-point road loss to #2 Pacific on Saturday doesn't help that assertion.

The Darkhorse: #4 seed UC-Irvine finished hot, winning 6 of their final 7 including home victories over the top 2 seeds. They're just as seasoned, going up against UCLA, LSU, UNLV, and USC in pre-conference play. And they pound you on the glass, grabbing a league-high 38.5 rebounds per game. Wouldn't you love to see the Anteaters win in something other than surfing?

Why You Should Watch: Gratuitous shots of the beach will make you wonder why you didn't move to Orange County as soon as you turned 18.

Roadto592 Pick: Long Beach State

Big Sky Conference

When: Thursday through Saturday

Where: Dahlberg Arena, Missoula, MT
TV: Final round on ESPNU (Saturday, 9:00)

The Field: Montana, Weber State, North Dakota, Montana State, Northern Colorado, Southern Utah, Northern Arizona

The Favorite: Smartly, the Big Sky awards its regular season champion with home-court advantage for the entire tournament. For Montana, it hasn't mattered -- in the 7 years since the conference moved its tournament on campus, the Grizzlies have won 3 times, but only once on their home floor. And Montana even won an NCAA game over fellow mid-major Nevada in 2006. Expect the 23-6 Grizzlies to garner a 13-14 seed with a good showing here, and the prime upset position that comes with it. Don't sleep on #2 seed Weber State though -- the Wildcats crushed Montana by 24 in Ogden for the Grizz' only conference loss.

The Darkhorse: When rivalries are in play, you have to throw it all out the window, right? #4 seed Montana State gave the Grizzlies all they could handle in two matchups this year, losing in OT on the road and then dropping a 3-point contest at home in Bozeman. Junior Flavien Davis (11.4 ppg) dropped 30 points in that contest and has hit double figures in 8 of his last 10 games -- if he gets hot again, the third time could be the charm for the Bobcats.

Why You Should Watch: To see if an actual fight between a bobcat and a grizzly bear breaks out at halftime. In Missoula, Montana, I wouldn't bet against it.

Roadto592 Pick: Montana

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
TV: First round on ESPNU (Thursday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Quarterfinals on ESPN2 (Friday, 12:00, 2:00, 7:00 and 9:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:00 and 3:00) and Finals (Sunday, 1:00) on ESPN

The Field: Miami (FL), Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State, Florida State, Maryland, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson, Virginia Tech

The Favorite: When you have a consensus Player of the Year candidate, you should be one of the best teams in the country (Plumlee). When you have one of the top 5 shooters in the land, you should be one of the best teams in the country (Curry). And when your best player is actually someone who just came back from injury, carrying you to three signature wins down the stretch, you might just just be the best team in the country (Kelly). Duke-UNC was supposed to be a game, and it wasn't -- Seth Curry flat out taunted the Tar Heels, scoring 18 of his 20 in the first half, and the at-times-seemingly-incompetent-in-the-post Mason Plumlee kept UNC from making any semblance of a comeback. Ryan Kelly only notched 8 points on Saturday, yet the Blue Devils needed every one of his 36 in last Saturday's win over Miami. Yep, the Dukies are peaking at the right time once again, and no one should be surprised if they streak through their next 9 en route to cutting down the nets in Atlanta.

The Darkhorse: NC State could lose to woeful Virginia Tech on Thursday and put themselves in serious bubble trouble. Or the Wolfpack could crush VT and UVA, fend off Miami in the semis, and take down Duke for the second time this year to take the ACC title. Underdog status seems to suit Mark Gottfried's bunch better than being favorites -- NC State advanced to the Sweet 16 as an 11-seed (in the NCAAs) last year and came within three points of the ACC final as an 11-seed (in the ACC) two years before that. After climbing up to #14 in the country after beating Duke, the Wolfpack promptly lost 5 of 6, putting them in fairly comfortable position coming into this tournament -- no one expects them to win. NC State definitely has the talent and depth to hang with the big boys: 5 players average double figures in scoring, and Lorenzo Brown (12.5 ppg, 7.0 apg) is one of the best distributors in the country. The newly discovered underdog status could be just what NC State needs to actually get back on the winning path.

Why You Should Watch: Bubble watching is limited to Virginia here. Miami, Duke, UNC and NC State are in the tournament, but Virginia is firmly on the bubble despite their February 28 upset of Duke (a wacky overall profile includes seven losses to RPI 101+ teams and eight wins over RPI 1-100 teams). It would behoove the Wahoos to knock off NC State in the quarterfinals to really lock down that bid, as a semifinal loss to Miami wouldn't really tarnish the profile all that much. If you needed more reasons to watch this tournament, look no further than Duke-UNC III and Duke-Miami III (if they happen). A dominant performance by the Blue Devils should vault them up to the #1 overall line entering the tournament.

Roadto592 Pick: Duke

Big 10 Conference

When: Thursday through Sunday

Where: United Center, Chicago, IL
TV: First round on Big Ten Network (Thursday, 12:00 and 2:30) and ESPN2 (6:30 and 9:00), Quarterfinals on ESPN (Friday, 12:00 and 2:30) and Big Ten Network (6:30 and 9:00), Semifinals (Saturday, 1:40 and 4:00) and Finals (3:30) on CBS

The Field: Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State

The Favorite: Indiana played a man's game on Sunday in Ann Arbor, showing that they deserved the #1 seed in what was far and away the toughest conference in America. The Hoosiers might match up better with Duke than any other team in the country, sporting a superior post man (Zeller), the most athletic player on the court (Oladipo), and lights out shooters (Hulls and Watford). The Hoosiers' relentless pace (2nd in the country at 80.8 ppg) has been a refreshing change this season in the plodding Big Ten, but Ohio State and Wisconsin have been able to shut down that pace in beating IU this year. If the Hoosiers can keep games in the 70s (IU scored 67+ points in every conference win this year), they'll get out of this bloodbath victorious and secure a #1 seed. If they get slowed down by Minnesota in the quarterfinals, though, that #1 line they've held all year could finally just slip away.

The Darkhorse: How can you really call anyone a dark horse when your #9 seed is a virtual lock for the NCAA Tournament? Sure, I don't see Purdue winning the thing, but any of the other first 9 has a legitimate shot at running the table. I see playing on Thursday being a huge disadvantage for all teams involved, especially Michigan, who was a top-5 national team all year before slipping to a #5 Big Ten team for this tourney (and a matchup with upset-minded Penn State, who just took down the Wolverines). Wisconsin might like their position the most among teams not named Indiana -- the Badgers would first draw a Michigan team that they beat (miraculously) in Ann Arbor, followed by a semifinal date with the Hoosiers (whom they beat in Bloomington) and a potential 45-44 final with either Ohio State or Michigan State. Wisconsin has three tempos -- slow, slower, and snail. It can be the most boring basketball on the planet, but if they can get those games in the 50s and 40s, they'll neutralize the Oladipos, the Zellers, the Crafts, and the Burkes that have defined the best teams in the league this year.

Why You Should Watch: If you don't watch this tournament, you shouldn't be allowed to ever touch a roundball again, much less fill out a bracket or even say the words "March" and "Madness" within 30 seconds of each other.

Roadto592 Pick: Ohio State -- barely -- over Indiana

--The Road to 592 is a pipe dream started by a diehard Atlanta fan with a sparse history of truly great sports atmospheres (being Atlanta and all). Read up on my unending pursuit here and check out the full list of venues here. For those sick of conference realignment, you can also relish in another pipe dream of mine -- the 28-team SEC. Follow me on Twitter @andrewhard592.